Monsanto revises full-year 2002 earnings guidance

St. Louis, Missouri
October 11, 2002

Monsanto Company (NYSE: MON) today announced that a continued decline in sales of Roundup herbicide in the United States, coupled with lower-than-expected sales in Argentina, would reduce its earlier earnings projection for 2002. Full-year 2002 earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be in the range of $1.15 to $1.23, compared with previous EPS guidance of approximately $1.50.

As previously announced, this guidance excludes reserves for potentially uncollectible receivables in Argentina of 38 cents per share and for restructuring costs projected to be approximately 32 cents per share for the year.

Despite the reduction in the earnings outlook, the company expects to meet its earlier projection for free cash flow in the range of $400 million to $460 million in 2002. Improvements in working capital will be the primary contributor to the generation of free cash, which consists of cash flow from operations less cash used for investing activities.

U.S. Roundup Business

Unusually dry weather in the Midwest and drought conditions in the Plains have reduced the growth of weeds and thus the need for herbicides through the summer and early fall. Monsanto's sales of Roundup herbicide for weed control in Roundup Ready crops during the summer were particularly hurt by these conditions. For the full year, sales volumes of Roundup will be down approximately 4 million to 6 million gallons. This loss will reduce earnings by 20 cents to 25 cents per share for the full year. Beyond the dry weather, current indications are that the Roundup business is performing as expected in a post-patent environment.

Latin American Operations

In mid-June, the company announced actions that would reduce the risks of doing business in Latin America, particularly Brazil and Argentina. These actions were expected to reduce full-year EPS by approximately 75 cents per share. Of that amount, 21 cents took effect in the second quarter. Monsanto now expects that a larger percentage of the sales in Argentina will be made on a cash rather than a grain basis, but at risk-adjusted prices. This further decline in sales is expected to reduce EPS by an additional 7 cents to 10 cents for the year. However, the increase from Latin American cash-based sales also will reduce receivables in Argentina by $50 million to $75 million from the $450 million of year-end receivables previously projected for 2002.

As discussed above, earlier this year Monsanto established a reserve of 38 cents per share for bad debts associated with receivables in Argentina that were affected by a government tax on agricultural exports. Charges are being made against this reserve as appropriate, and the company believes this level of reserve is adequate for the year.

Third- and Fourth-Quarter Outlook

Third-quarter results are expected to be in the range of 39 cents to 44 cents worse than last year's loss of 15 cents per share for the quarter, excluding special items in the third quarter of both years. The third-quarter 2002 results will reflect the effect of the actions in Latin America, plus the reduced sales of Roundup in the United States. Free cash flow for the first nine months of 2002 is expected to be significantly better than free cash flow in the same period last year.

Monsanto's business in the fourth quarter will include sales of seeds and biotechnology traits in the United States as customers prepare for the 2003 growing season. U.S. agricultural distributors also traditionally begin stocking the Roundup family of agricultural products in the fourth quarter in anticipation of the upcoming spring season. This year, many of those customers are expected to switch to Monsanto's new Roundup WeatherMAX, which is a unique, proprietary formulation of Roundup with improved performance for the farmer.

Monsanto will provide further information on the outlook for 2002 when it reports third-quarter earnings on Oct. 30. The company is not providing earnings guidance for 2003 at this time.

Monsanto Company is a leading global supplier of technology-based solutions and agricultural products that improve farm productivity and food quality.

References to Roundup products in this release mean Roundup branded and other glyphosate-based herbicides, excluding lawn and garden products.

Company news release
4910

OTHER RELEASES FROM THIS COMPANY

Copyright © 2002 SeedQuest - All rights reserved