Lubbock, Texas
June 16, 2003

Five hundred thousand to 725,000 acres was the "best-guess" estimate of damaged cotton resulting from violent weather that has wracked West Texas since May 31.

Those estimates were offered by agronomist, entomologists, crop consultants, agribusiness representatives and others at a Plains Cotton Growers, Inc., roundtable meeting on Friday. Economists with Texas Cooperative Extension estimate the raw potential economic value of those lost acres between $130 million and $188.5 million.

Texas farmers plant about 5 million cotton acres each year, stretching from the Rio Grande Valley near Brownsville to the Texas-New Mexico border in the west, and as far north as some counties near Amarillo. The 20-county area surrounding Lubbock is often known as "the world's largest cotton patch," because farmers there typically plant about 3.2 million acres of upland cotton each year. Approximately 10 percent of that acreage, roughly 320,000 acres, never makes it to harvest due to weather, insects, disease, or other causes.

"The 2003 crop has taken a big hit in West Texas from a combination of rain, hail and wind since May 30-31; I have lost count of the number of storms," said Randy Boman, Extension cotton agronomist based at Lubbock. "I'm guessing we have about 500,000 acres damaged in the 20 counties surrounding Lubbock. But I feel like that number is low."

Boman noted that producers in Floyd, Crosby, Hale, Swisher, Parmer, Castro, Bailey, Cochran, Lamb, Lubbock, Terry and Yoakum counties were hardest hit, to date. The toll of damage on other crops, such as corn or wheat, and equipment (center pivot sprinklers and barns, for example) is not known yet.

Patrick Burson, manager of the Texas Boll Weevil Eradication Foundation's Southern High Plains/Caprock Eradication Zone, put the number of damaged acres at 700,000 to 725,000 acres, based on foundation field reports ranging from the northern High Plains south into the Permian Basin.

Farmers on the South Plains begin planting their cotton in early May. Roller coaster daily temperatures greeted their efforts this year. The high temperature reached 103 degrees in Lubbock on May 18, but topped out at only 60 degrees on May 20. Large temperature swings hamper heat-loving
crops such as cotton, which must accumulate thousands of daily heat units to make appreciable yields.

"We are a little behind in heat unit accumulation because of cooler temperatures that have delayed planting and stunted growth of emerging cotton seedlings," Boman noted. "The only silver lining I see in the clouds so far is our soil moisture. The 3 to 8 inches of rain we have received will help the surviving crop, and any crop that we replant." Cotton producers should evaluate their damaged fields closely and carefully before making any replant decisions, Boman said. There is a host of information on evaluating damaged crops, making replant decisions, and choosing catch crops to replace failed cotton on the Internet at: http://lubbock.tamu.edu.

With a new farm program under way, producers should check with their county USDA Farm Service Agency office to ensure their replanting decisions will not affect their program participation or program benefits. "It's also important for producers to destroy those failed cotton acres, to eliminate any potential habitat for boll weevils," noted Stan Carroll, cotton entomologist with Texas Cooperative Extension. Farmers in active boll weevil eradication zones pay an assessment to fund eradication of this pest through the Texas Boll Weevil Eradication Foundation. Those who clean out failed cotton acres may be eligible for a credit on their assessment, but the possibility of a credit varies zone-by-zone.

"I'm concerned that our recent weather losses could reduce our regional yield potential by as much as one million bales," said Roger Haldenby, vice president-operations for Plains Cotton Growers. "The damage to date has cut the heart out of some of our most productive areas," Boman added. In gauging the raw potential product value of lost cotton, Extension economists put the figures between $130 million for 500,000 acres of losses and $188.5 million for 725,000 acres lost.

These estimates do not reflect any crop insurance payments or federal disaster aid payments affected growers might receive, nor do they reflect the "ripple" effect these dollars might have in the regional or state economy. If an economic multiplier of 2.5 is applied, the total projected economic impact could range from $325 million to $471 million. Economic multipliers are often used to account for the ripple effect of currency spending as it passes through a regional or state economy.

Writer: Tim McAlavy, (806) 746-6101, t-mcalavy@tamu.edu