Ithaca, New York
September 24, 2003

The force of global economics is changing the agricultural landscape in New York state, the Northeast region and the United States. These changes have created uncertainties for the American agricultural economy, according to a white paper released Sept. 19 by Cornell University agricultural scientists and economists.

"We are seeing more and more large farms, and there are billions of dollars in subsidies for large, commercial farms. If there were an economic shake-up in agriculture and if the big farm holdings could not sell their goods, the United States would become protectionist immediately," says Thomas Lyson, Cornell's Liberty Hyde Bailey professor of development sociology and one of the paper's authors. "I think it is very precarious."

The paper, "The Future of American Agriculture and the Land Grant University: Toward a Sustainable, Healthful and Entrepreneurial Food System," results from a yearlong examination by the Cornell group. It is available at <http://www.cals.cornell.edu/polson/faawhitepaper.pdf>.

The group voices its belief that in the future agricultural entities in the United States either will be high value or local niche marketers, and few, if any, will be of medium size. "We are heading toward a bimodal structure. Medium-size farms will become fewer," says Brian Chabot, Cornell professor of ecology and evolutionary biology.

As the economy becomes more global, large farms in the United States either will compete on price or produce crops for subsidized markets. "Cost-reducing technologies will continue to be important, and large farms increasingly will be integrated into transnational food supply systems," says Chabot. "Low-cost providers will rule the market, and that is an economic process that is hard to counter."

In New York state there were 15,000 dairy farms in the late 1980s, and today only 7,200 remain. Even so, in terms of dairy production, New York ranks third behind California and Wisconsin. In 2001, the state's dairy industry contributed $1.5 billion to New York's economy, which was more than half of the state's agricultural receipts, according to the New York State Department of Agriculture and Markets.  The department conducted a Dairy Farm Transition Survey in February 2002 in which 48 percent of New York's dairy producers said they planned to expand herds. About 45 percent of the dairies expected to maintain their current operating scale.

To resolve some of the economic problems in agriculture, Chabot suggests refocusing efforts on commodities unique to a region, like wine, dairy, maple syrup and certain apple varieties in New York. Additionally, Chabot thinks there should be an educational effort to reach the public to explain how world economics is forcing food-system changes at home. "We should educate consumers on how these changes affect them and start that education here at Cornell with our own students," he says.

In fact, that educational effort already is under way, and last spring a pilot course, Integrating Food Systems and Human Nutrition Needs, was taught by Jennifer Wilkins, Cornell senior extension associate in nutritional sciences. The course examined the link between human nutrition and systems of food production and distribution. Student teams investigated new and existing technological options within food systems that could be used to improve domestic or international nutritional needs.

Are these economic trends in agriculture good or bad for American farmers? Says Chabot: "It's neither good nor bad; it's how the world works."

In addition to Chabot, Lyson and Wilkins, the other Cornell faculty presenting the white paper were: Ronnie Coffman, director, International Programs; Dan Decker, director, Agricultural Experiment Station, Ithaca; Amy Guptill, development sociology; David Lee, applied economics and management; Susan McCouch, plant breeding; Philip McMichael, development sociology; Ian Merwin, horticulture; David Pelletier, nutritional sciences; David Pimental, ecology and evolutionary biology; Marvin Pritts, horticulture; Norman Uphoff, Cornell International Institute for Food, Agriculture and Development; Steven Wolf, natural resources; and Anna Zalik, development sociology. The white paper was funded by Cornell's Polson Institute for Global Development and the university's College of Agriculture and Life Sciences.