Washington, DC
September 29, 2003
Crop Production
Drops, More Insect Infestations Anticipated as Global Warming
Worsens; Wind Energy, Biodiesel and Carbon Sequestration Are All
Possible 'Pluses' for Farmers
Falling crop production resulting
from extreme weather events, diseases and pest infestations
increasingly will be fueled by global warming and create an
uncertain future for U.S. agricultural production and the
nation's food supplies, according to leading experts gathered
here today at a
Harvard Medical School Center for Health and the Global
Environment briefing, made possible by the Civil Society
Institute, the Energy Foundation and the National Environmental
Trust. A news media event was followed by a congressional staff
briefing sponsored by Sen. Harkin (D-IA), Sen. Brownback (R-KS),
Sen. Bill Nelson (D-NE) and Sen. Lugar (R-IN).
Not all the views from the
experts were gloomy. Some noted that the impact of global
warming can be lessened -- and even turned into a boon for
agricultural producers -- if farmers take such steps as setting
up wind farms, engaging in the production of "biodiesel" and
ethanol fuels and participating in carbon sequestration
programs.
Eric Chivian, director of the
Center for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard Medical
School said: "Since the 1970s, U.S. agricultural productivity
has grown, but it has also experienced greater variability that
has been, in part, climate-related. Extreme weather events (very
high temperatures, torrential rains and flooding, and droughts)
and crop diseases and pests have taken a heavy toll. Greenhouse
warming is expected to lead in future years to even more intense
and frequent extreme weather events, and to greater losses from
diseases and from pests that may multiply more rapidly and
expand their ranges."
William Easterling, professor of agronomy and director of the
Institutes of the Environment at Penn State University said:
"Climate variability continues to exert large year-to-year
swings in U.S. crop yields and production in spite of
technology-driven gains in crop productivity over the 20th
century. Recent persistent drought conditions in the western
Corn Belt states have particularly affected wheat production.
While experiments persuasively demonstrate the positive effects
of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations on photosynthesis of
major crops such as soybeans and wheat and on the
drought-tolerance of all crops, these effects are not likely to
fully offset the potential stresses of warmer temperatures and
drier soils, especially as the warming progresses. Crop modeling
results ... paint a consistent picture of crop yields being
lower than today even in an environment with higher rainfall
than now." Among the big
concerns for farmers when it comes to climate change: more pests
and diseases. X.B. Yang, associate professor of plant pathology
at Iowa State University said: "Climate change will greatly
impact plant diseases and pests because climate dictates their
occurrence. Literature in plant pathology has shown that
pandemics of pests are associated with extreme weather events.
Recently, increased large scale epidemics of new and old
diseases have been recorded in our nation's major crops.
Pandemics of wheat stripe rust occurred in The Great Plains
during the 2001 and 2003 growing seasons. In 2002, U.S. soybean
farmers experienced epidemics of soybean sudden death syndrome,
and various viral diseases, costing them nearly 2 billion
dollars. This summer, mass outbreaks of Asian aphids occurred in
Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota, the three largest soybean
production states, after cool July weather suddenly turned into
a record dry August. Farmers in the North Central Region, which
includes our nation's Corn Belt and Soybean Belt, are
experiencing increasing outbreaks of crop diseases and pests."
Yang added: "Before the mid-80s, no
more than four major diseases affected soybean production. Now
the number has more than doubled, with annual losses totaling
almost two billion dollars. Range expansions northward of
southern diseases or in the distribution of warm-temperature
diseases have been attributed to these new disease problems.
Recent warmer winters in northern production regions have
increased winter pest survival and outbreaks of insect-borne
viral diseases associated with them."
However, global warming also could
work to the advantage of some farmers, according to Charles W.
Rice, professor of soil microbiology at Kansas State University.
He noted: "Agriculture can help solve [the CO2] problem [through
participation in carbon sequestration programs]. Crops and other
plants remove CO2 from the atmosphere and convert it into
organic carbon. After harvest, the organic carbon in residues
and roots is deposited in the soil, where portions can remain
for long periods ... Benefits of carbon sequestration include
increased soil fertility, reduced erosion, improved wildlife
habitat and better soil and water quality. Recent estimates of
the potential for U.S. agricultural soils to sequester carbon,
using existing technologies, are on the order of ... 15 percent
of carbon emissions in the U.S. This estimate does not include
biomass production for renewable fuels nor advancement in soil
and agricultural sciences. Economic analyses suggest that soil
carbon sequestration is among the most beneficial and cost
effective option available for reducing greenhouse gases,
particularly over the next 30 years until alternative energy
sources are developed and become economically feasible."
U.S. farms also could serve as a
major source of alternative energy supplies, including wind
farming and biodiesel production. American Corn Growers
Foundation CEO Dan McGuire said: "Renewable energy, including
wind, ethanol and biodiesel offers the means to improve the
environment and make our country more energy independent and
secure while enhancing the rural and national economy. The Wind
Powering America program of the U.S. Dept. of Energy projects
that wind power could displace 35 million tons of atmospheric
carbon by year 2020. In May 2000, biodiesel became the only
alternative fuel to successfully complete the Environmental
Protection Agency's Tier I and Tier II testing under Section 211
(b) of the Clean Air Act. The Department of Energy and the U.S.
Department of Agriculture have calculated carbon dioxide
reductions of 78 percent for biodiesel when compared with
petroleum diesel in a full life cycle analysis. Biodiesel also
reduces air pollutants linked to cancer by 80-90 percent vs.
petroleum diesel."
ABOUT THE HARVARD MEDICAL
SCHOOL'S CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
The Center for Health and the Global Environment (http://www.med.harvard.edu/chge/)
at the Harvard Medical School was founded in 1996 to expand
environmental education at medical schools and to further
investigate and promote awareness of the human health
consequences of global environmental change. The Center
administers a course at Harvard Medical School entitled "Human
Health and Global Environmental Change." The course is taught by
scientific experts from around the world and is open to the
public as well as students from Harvard Medical School, Harvard
School of Public Health, and other university students in the
Boston area. The course has also been taught at more than 20
percent of medical schools in the U.S. and three international
medical schools via videotape and online videos. The Center also
educates policy-makers by holding briefings and courses on human
health and the global environment on Capitol Hill, and directs
two major projects for the United Nations -- one looking at
human health projections from climate change, with the
participation and support of the Swiss Re Corporation, the other
reporting on what is known about the contributions of
biodiversity to human health.
ABOUT CIVIL SOCIETY INSTITUTE
Based in Newton, MA, the Civil
Society Institute is a non-profit organization that focuses on
five areas of critical need: kids and learning, health care
reform, science policy and regenerative medicine, economic
change and climate change and global security. Visit the Civil
Society Institute on the Web at
http://www.civilsocietyinstitute.org.
ABOUT THE ENERGY FOUNDATION
Launched in 1991, The Energy
Foundation is a partnership of major foundations interested in
sustainable energy. The Energy Foundation awards grants and
takes direct initiatives in six areas: Power, Buildings,
Transportation, National Policy & Analysis, Climate Program and
The China Sustainable Energy Program. The foundation's
geographic focus is the United States, with special emphasis on
regional initiatives. Visit The Energy Foundation on the Web at
http://www.energyfoundation.org/.
ABOUT THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL
TRUST The National
Environmental Trust is a non-profit, non-partisan membership
group established in 1994 to inform citizens about environmental
problems and how they affect our health and quality of life.
Visit the National Environmental Trust on the Web at
http://environet.policy.net/. |