August 24, 2004
Federation - Canola Crop Report 2004/05
estimates have been revised up marginally (2%) due to more
positive outlook in Western Australia (WA) and Southern
Australia (SA). However, New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria are
still dependent on a good spring to secure forecast production.
Most of NSW received rain
in late July and early August, although this varied from 10-50
mm in earlier falls and 10-20 mm in the later fall. The north of
the state and the more favourable areas continue to have the
best outlook. Crops in the north look good, although there is a
wide variance in maturity, with early crops at 5-10% flower. In
the central and southern districts, lack of subsoil moisture
continues to be the major issue and while crops have been kept
going with the rain over the past month, they will require good
rain through the spring. A potential risk for yields is that if
there is not further rain in the central and southern areas in
the next 2-3 weeks, this combined with the late planting and low
prices, may see less than optimal levels of fertiliser applied
by farmers. There have been a few pest problems in the south and
also incidence of aphids in the north, but this is not expected
to impact yields. In summary, area and yields have been left
unchanged. However, with crops in late and no subsoil moisture,
a good spring is essential to secure production.
In Victoria the Western
Districts and area south of Horsham are looking very good. While
crops were planted 3-4 weeks late, there has been no further
stress and, with good spring rain, have excellent potential.
Crops in the northern Wimmera and Mallee are less impressive and
some of the later crops are struggling. There has been some
downy mildew in the wetter areas and some blackleg incidence,
but neither is expected to impact yield. There has been some
insect damage to the later crops in the drier areas. In most
areas the crops have made good progress in last couple of weeks
and, while similarly to NSW a good spring is required, the crop
has good potential. Area and yield have been left unchanged at
In a state of contrasts, parts of
the lower south east of South Australia have been
impacted by excessive moisture and water logging, while crops in
the north are still lacking moisture. However, generally crops
are looking okay across the state. There has been some patchy
incidence of lucerne flea and red legged earth mite damage.
There has also been some incidence of blackleg, which could be
of more significance than in Victoria. Again there is yield
upside with good spring rain. Area has been left unchanged, but
yields have been revised up slightly (3%).
Western Australia looks set
to have another good year. Crops are in good condition across
the state, particularly in the north. Some of the later crops in
the south are lacking subsoil moisture. Area has been increased
slightly and yields revised up by 5%.
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