Winnipeg, Manitoba
January 20, 2004
from Agriculture
and Agri-Food Canada
Market Analysis Division
For 2003-04, total production of grains and
oilseeds in Canada is estimated by Statistics Canada at 59.6
million tonnes (Mt) versus 43.3 Mt in 2002-03 and the 10-year
average of 59.7 Mt. In western Canada, production is estimated
to increase to 44.1 Mt from 28.9 Mt in 2002-03 and crop quality
is generally above average. The proportion of the wheat and
durum crop in western Canada in the top two grades is estimated
to be over 90%, compared to less than 30% in 2002-03, and the
protein content is above normal due to the hot dry growing
season. Barley protein levels are also likely higher than
normal, which may limit the amount selected for malting
purposes. Fusarium is not a problem in wheat or barley. Total
supplies have increased, as higher production has more than
offset low carry-in stocks. In eastern Canada, production has
increased to 15.6 Mt, from 14.5 Mt in 2002-03, due to
near-record corn yields. It has been assumed that the trade
disruptions affecting the cattle and beef sector, related to the
bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) cases in Alberta and the
US will not have a major impact on feed use in 2003-04.
Average world wheat export prices, in US dollars,
have decreased from the 2002-03 level due to higher production
in the US, Canada and Australia. However, prices have been
supported by lower production in the EU, Eastern Europe, Ukraine
and Russia. For coarse grains, prices have been pressured by the
large US corn crop but for barley, this will be partly offset by
low feedgrain production in Europe. The European Union (EU)
suspended its weekly open market export tenders for wheat,
barley and rye on July 31. For oilseeds, world prices have
increased significantly from last year due to lower soybean
supplies in the US and strong world demand. In Canada, except
for soybeans, the average prices for grains and oilseeds are
expected to be lower than last year due to increased supply and
the stronger Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar. The
major factors to watch are: import demand from China, growing
conditions in Brazil for the soybean crop, EU grain export
policy, winter wheat production in the US and other major winter
wheat producing countries, developments regarding the cattle
trade, ocean freight rates, and the Canada/US exchange rate.
WHEAT (ex-durum)
Production increased by 56% from 2002-03, to 19.3
Mt, slightly below the 10-year avg. of 19.9 Mt. The higher
production has been partly offset by a 23% decrease in carry-in
stocks, and total supplies are up by 32% from 2002-03, at 23.3
Mt. Ontario wheat production is a record 2.2 Mt, 86% above the
10-year average. Total exports are forecast to more than double,
to 12.6 Mt, from only 6.2 Mt in 2002-03, but remain below the
10-year average of 13.5 Mt. Of this, a record 1.1 Mt are
expected to be from Ontario. Much of the Ontario exports will be
to the US, as US mills are reported to be buying Ontario soft
wheat because of Fusarium problems in the US soft red winter
crop. Total feed use in Canada is expected to decline by 25%
from 2002-03, to 2.9 Mt, due to good quality and higher barley
supplies. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise slightly but
remain historically low at 4.2 Mt. The Canadian Wheat Board
(CWB) Dec. 2003-04 Pool Return Outlook (PRO) for No.1 CWRS 11.5%
protein is $187/t, in-store Vancouver/ St. Lawrence (I/S VC/SL),
up $2/t from Nov. due to a slightly stronger world price
outlook, but it remains $54/t below the final realized price for
2002-03.
DURUM
Production increased by 10% from 2002-03, to 4.3
Mt, due to a higher harvested area, although yields are
relatively unchanged from last year due to continued dryness in
southern Saskatchewan. Carry-in stocks are up by 8% from
2002-03, and total supplies have increased by 10% to 5.9 Mt,
which remains below the 10-year average of 6.2 Mt. Exports are
forecast to rise by 15%, to 3.4 Mt, due to increased supplies of
Nos. 1 and 2 CWAD. This is below the 10-year average of 3.6 Mt,
largely due to weak world demand for durum wheat resulting from
good crops in North Africa. Carry-out stocks are projected to
rise slightly, to 1.7 Mt, equal to the 10-year average. The CWB
Dec. PRO for No.1 CWAD 11.5% protein is up by $4/t from Nov. at
$209/t, I/S VC/SL, but $62/t below 2002-03, with the increase
from last month due to stronger than expected demand from the
EU. The premium for No.1 CWAD 11.5% over No.1 CWRS 11.5% is
projected at $22/t, vs. $30/t in 2002-03.
BARLEY
Production increased by 65% from 2002-03 but
supplies rose by only 41%, due to lower carry-in stocks. Exports
of malting barley and feed barley are both expected to increase
sharply. Feed use of barley is expected to rise significantly
from 2002-03, as barley displaces imports of US corn in western
Canada. Barley carry-out stocks are forecast to increase but
remain historically low. Off-Board feed barley prices are
expected to decrease sharply. The CWB Dec. PRO for No.1 CW Feed
barley is $159/t, I/S VC/SL, vs. the 2002-03 final realized
price of $164/t. The CWB PRO for Special Select Two Row
designated barley is $197/t, vs. $242/t in 2002-03, due to
higher supplies in North America and Australia.
OATS
Production and supplies increased by nearly 30%
from 2002-03. Exports, mainly to the US, are expected to rise
significantly due to larger supplies and reduced competition
from Sweden and Finland. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise
slightly. Prices are forecast to fall sharply largely due to
higher production in Canada and the US and the stronger Canadian
dollar. The premium for oats over corn is expected to fall
sharply.
CORN
Production increased by 7 percent from 2002-03
due to higher yields. Supply is forecast to decrease, as imports
are expected to fall to 1.4 Mt, due to higher barley production
in western Canada and higher corn and wheat production in
eastern Canada. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease. The
average Chatham price is forecast to fall by about $15/t from
2002-03, due to the stronger Canadian dollar and decreased basis
from Chicago.
CANOLA
Production increased by 60% from 2002-03, but
supplies rose by only 37%, due to lower carry-in stocks.
Domestic crush is forecast to rise by 39%, supported by reported
canola oil sales to China. Exports are also forecast to increase
by 38%, due to higher shipments to Mexico and China. Carry-out
stocks are forecast to rise from 2002-03. The average Vancouver
cash price is forecast to fall to $360-390/t, as the stronger
Canadian dollar offsets support from higher US soyoil prices.
FLAXSEED (excluding solin)
Production increased by 11%, but supplies rose by
only 1% due to lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to
decrease slightly on weaker EU demand. Carry-out stocks are
expected to rise from 2002-03. The average Thunder Bay cash
price is forecast to fall to $335-365/t, under pressure from
higher supplies and the stronger Canadian dollar.
SOYBEANS
Production decreased by 3%, due to lower yields.
Supplies are forecast to fall slightly. Food and industrial use,
exports and carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease slightly.
The average Chatham price is forecast to increase to $325-355/t,
as support from higher world prices more than offsets pressure
from the stronger Canadian dollar.
|
Canada: Grains and Oilseeds Supply and Disposition
January 20, 2004
ISSN
1496-967X |
|
Grain
and
Crop Year
(a) |
Har-
ves-
ted Area (kha) |
Yie-
ld
(t/ha) |
Pro-
duc-
tion
(kt) |
Im-
por-
ts
(b)
(kt) |
To-
tal Sup-
ply
(kt) |
Ex-
por-
ts (c)
(kt) |
Food
&
Ind.
Use
(kt) |
Fe-
ed, Wa-
ste, Dock.
(kt) |
To-
tal Dom. Use
(d)
(kt) |
End-
ing Sto-
cks
(kt) |
Avg.
Pr-
ice
(e)
$/t |
|
Durum |
|
2002
-2003 |
2,246 |
1.73 |
3,877 |
6 |
5,427 |
2,968 |
279 |
283 |
799 |
1,660 |
271.23 |
|
2003
-2004
f |
2,434 |
1.76 |
4,280 |
2 |
5,942 |
3,400 |
285 |
307 |
842 |
1,700 |
209 * |
|
2004
-2005
f |
2,535 |
2.06 |
5,230 |
5 |
6,935 |
3,600 |
290 |
515 |
1,035 |
2,300 |
190 |
|
Wheat Except Durum |
|
2002
-2003 |
6,590 |
1.87 |
12,321 |
173 |
17,678 |
6,223 |
2,767 |
3,904 |
7,465 |
3,990 |
241.00 |
|
2003
-2004
f |
8,009 |
2.41 |
19,272 |
20 |
23,282 |
12,600 |
2,780 |
2,942 |
6,482 |
4,200 |
187 * |
|
2004
-2005
f |
7,660 |
2.49 |
19,100 |
25 |
23,325 |
12,300 |
2,790 |
3,255 |
6,825 |
4,200 |
180 |
|
All Wheat |
|
2002
-2003 |
8,836 |
1.83 |
16,198 |
178 |
23,105 |
9,191 |
3,046 |
4,188 |
8,264 |
5,650 |
|
|
2003
-2004
f |
10,443 |
2.26 |
23,552 |
22 |
29,224 |
16,000 |
3,065 |
3,249 |
7,324 |
5,900 |
|
|
2004
-2005
f |
10,195 |
2.39 |
24,330 |
30 |
30,260 |
15,900 |
3,080 |
3,770 |
7,860 |
6,500 |
|
|
Barley |
|
2002
-2003 |
3,348 |
2.24 |
7,489 |
259 |
9,795 |
939 |
181 |
6,796 |
7,415 |
1,441 |
171.88 |
|
2003
-2004
f |
4,446 |
2.77 |
12,328 |
50 |
13,819 |
2,800 |
320 |
8,664 |
9,419 |
1,600 |
115
-135 |
|
2004
-2005
f |
4,366 |
3.03 |
13,247 |
50 |
14,897 |
2,750 |
375 |
9,517 |
10,347 |
1,800 |
110
-140 |
|
Corn |
|
2002
-2003 |
1,283 |
7.01 |
8,999 |
3,904 |
13,958 |
308 |
2,385 |
10,121 |
12,540 |
1,111 |
145.34 |
|
2003
-2004
f |
1,226 |
7.82 |
9,587 |
1,400 |
12,098 |
400 |
2,500 |
8,163 |
10,698 |
1,000 |
120
-140 |
|
2004
-2005
f |
1,299 |
7.44 |
9,662 |
1,650 |
12,312 |
300 |
2,650 |
8,427 |
11,112 |
900 |
110
-140 |
|
Oats |
|
2002
-2003 |
1,379 |
2.11 |
2,911 |
21 |
3,294 |
1,189 |
128 |
1,226 |
1,546 |
559 |
193.91 |
|
2003
-2004
f |
1,575 |
2.34 |
3,691 |
5 |
4,255 |
1,600 |
150 |
1,665 |
2,005 |
650 |
120
-140 |
|
2004
-2005
f |
1,601 |
2.53 |
4,049 |
5 |
4,704 |
1,700 |
150 |
1,899 |
2,254 |
750 |
115
-145 |
|
Rye |
|
2002
-2003 |
77 |
1.74 |
134 |
2 |
185 |
52 |
38 |
43 |
103 |
30 |
|
|
2003
-2004
f |
147 |
2.22 |
327 |
5 |
362 |
85 |
47 |
147 |
212 |
65 |
|
|
2004
-2005
f |
185 |
2.08 |
384 |
2 |
451 |
90 |
48 |
216 |
281 |
80 |
|
|
Mixed Grains |
|
2002
-2003 |
132 |
2.72 |
359 |
0 |
359 |
0 |
0 |
359 |
359 |
0 |
|
|
2003
-2004
f |
135 |
2.84 |
384 |
0 |
384 |
0 |
0 |
384 |
384 |
0 |
|
|
2004
-2005
f |
131 |
2.87 |
376 |
0 |
376 |
0 |
0 |
376 |
376 |
0 |
|
|
Total Coarse Grains |
|
2002
-2003 |
6,218 |
3.20 |
19,892 |
4,185 |
27,591 |
2,488 |
2,731 |
18,544 |
21,963 |
3,141 |
|
|
2003
-2004
f |
7,529 |
3.50 |
26,317 |
1,460 |
30,918 |
4,885 |
3,017 |
19,023 |
22,718 |
3,315 |
|
|
2004
-2005
f |
7,582 |
3.66 |
27,718 |
1,707 |
32,740 |
4,840 |
3,223 |
20,435 |
24,370 |
3,530 |
|
|
Canola |
|
2002
-2003 |
3,262 |
1.28 |
4,178 |
240 |
5,667 |
2,394 |
2,225 |
116 |
2,379 |
894 |
415.09 |
|
2003
-2004
f |
4,689 |
1.42 |
6,669 |
225 |
7,788 |
3,300 |
3,100 |
293 |
3,438 |
1,050 |
360
-390 |
|
2004
-2005
f |
5,105 |
1.39 |
7,100 |
225 |
8,375 |
3,700 |
3,100 |
280 |
3,425 |
1,250 |
325
-365 |
|
Flaxseed |
|
2002
-2003 |
633 |
1.07 |
679 |
27 |
892 |
577 |
n/a
|
n/a |
186 |
129 |
401.97 |
|
2003
-2004
f |
728 |
1.04 |
754 |
20 |
903 |
550 |
n/a
|
n/a |
203 |
150 |
335
-365 |
|
2004
-2005
f |
804 |
1.26 |
1,010 |
20 |
1,180 |
600 |
n/a
|
n/a |
180 |
400 |
300
-330 |
|
Soybeans |
|
2002
-2003 |
1,024 |
2.28 |
2,336 |
651 |
3,159 |
722 |
1,763 |
458 |
2,291 |
145 |
307.55 |
|
2003
-2004
f |
1,047 |
2.17 |
2,268 |
650 |
3,063 |
700 |
1,725 |
418 |
2,213 |
150 |
325
-355 |
|
2004
-2005
f |
1,092 |
2.47 |
2,692 |
250 |
3,092 |
700 |
1,750 |
397 |
2,217 |
175 |
260
-300 |
|
Total Oilseeds |
|
2002
-2003 |
4,919 |
1.46 |
7,193 |
918 |
9,718 |
3,694 |
n/a |
n/a |
4,856 |
1,168 |
|
|
2003
-2004
f |
6,464 |
1.50 |
9,692 |
895 |
11,755 |
4,550 |
n/a |
n/a |
5,855 |
1,350 |
|
|
2004
-2005
f |
7,001 |
1.54 |
10,802 |
495 |
12,647 |
5,000 |
n/a |
n/a |
5,822 |
1,825 |
|
|
Total Grains And Oilseeds |
|
2002
-2003 |
19,973 |
2.17 |
43,282 |
5,280 |
60,414 |
15,373 |
n/a |
n/a |
35,083 |
9,959 |
|
|
2003
-2004
f |
24,437 |
2.44 |
59,561 |
2,377 |
71,897 |
25,435 |
n/a |
n/a |
35,897 |
10,565 |
|
|
2004
-2005
f |
24,777 |
2.54 |
62,850 |
2,232 |
75,647 |
25,740 |
n/a |
n/a |
38,052 |
11,855 |
|
(a) August - July crop year except
corn and soybeans which are September - August.
(b) Excludes imports of products.
(c) Includes exports of products for wheat, oats, barley, and
rye. Excludes exports of oilseed products.
(d) Includes seed use. For flaxseed and
soybeans, food/industrial use and feed/waste/dockage are
included in the total domestic use, but are not listed due to
data confidentiality.
(e) Crop year average prices: No.1
CWRS
11.5% and No.1
CWAD
11.5% (CWB
final price I/S
St. Lawrence/Vancouver), Barley (No.
1 feed, WCE,
cash, I/S Lethbridge), Corn (No.2
CE, cash,
I/S Chatham), Oats (US
No. 2 Heavy,
CBoT
nearby futures); Canola (No. 1
Canada, WCE,
cash, I/S Vancouver); Flaxseed (No.
1 CW ,WCE,
cash, I/S Thunder Bay); Soybeans (No.
2, I/S Chatham).
* December 2003
CWB
PRO
1/ Source for Food and
Industrial Use is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed
Processors Association.
f: forecast, Agriculture and
Agri-Food Canada, January 20, 2004
Source: Statistics Canada, Cereals and Oilseeds Review Series,
Cat. No. 22-007
This report is available in
PDF format at
http://www.agr.gc.ca/mad-dam/e/sd1e/2004e/jan2004_e.pdf
|
