WHEAT (ex-durum)

For 2004-05, production is forecast to increase by 3%, with higher production in western Canada offset by sharply lower production in Ontario. Supplies are expected to increase but remain below the 10-year average of 25.4 Mt. Domestic use is projected to rise slightly, due to greater feed use, assuming a return to a normal grade distribution. Exports are forecast to increase slightly, with higher western exports largely offset by lower exports from Ontario. Carry-out stocks are forecast to remain at 4.0 Mt, well below the 10-year average of 5.3 Mt. The Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) Pool Return Outlook (PRO) for No.1 CWRS 11.5% protein is $215/t, in-store Vancouver/St. Lawrence (I/S VC/SL), $7/t above 2003-04. Ontario winter wheat production is forecast to fall by 25% due to a lower seeded area. Exports of wheat from Ontario are projected to fall to 0.8 Mt, from a record 1.4 Mt in 2003-04, due to the lower production.

DURUM

Production is forecast to rise by 4%, due to higher expected yields related to much-improved moisture conditions in the durum growing region, despite lower seeded area. Due to higher carry-in stocks and production, supplies are forecast to rise by 8%, to 6.4 Mt, slightly above the 10-year average. Exports are also expected to increase but remain slightly below the 10-year average. World import demand for durum wheat is expected to weaken due to good crops in the EU and North Africa. Carry-out stocks are projected to increase by 11% to 2.1 Mt, versus the 10-year average of 1.7 Mt. The CWB PRO for No.1 CWAD 11.5% protein is $200/t, I/S VC/SL, $26/t below 2003-04. A discount of $15/t to No.1 CWRS 11.5% is projected, versus an $18/t premium for 2003-04, which would be the first discount since 1990-91.

BARLEY

Production is forecast to increase by 3% due to higher yields, despite lower seeded area. Due to higher carry-in stocks and production, supplies are expected to rise by 9%. Feed use is expected to increase, due to higher barley supplies in western Canada and increased shipments to eastern Canada. Malting barley exports are expected to rise, as import demand from China returns to normal. Feed barley exports are forecast to fall, due to increased competition from the EU-25, Australia and the Black Sea region. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase. Off-Board feed barley prices are expected to be the same as 2003-04, as support from higher US corn prices is offset by pressure from larger domestic production. The CWB June PRO for No.1 CW Feed Barley is $134/t I/S VC/SL, versus $164/t for 2003-04. The PRO for Special Select Two Row designated barley is $187/t versus $200/t for 2003-04, mainly due to higher supplies expected in Europe and Australia.

OATS

Production is forecast to decline marginally due to a lower area, but supply is expected to rise by 5% due to higher carry-in stocks. Exports, mainly to the US, are expected to rise slightly. Oat prices are forecast to rise due to higher US corn prices, with the price expected to be comparable to corn on a per tonne basis.

CORN

Production is forecast to fall by 10%, due to lower seeded area and yields. Corn imports, especially to eastern Canada, are expected to rise, as a result of lower domestic supplies. The feed use of corn is forecast to decline as barley replaces some of the corn fed in Canada, especially in western Canada. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decline by 10%. Chatham corn prices are forecast to rise by $10/t, due to higher US corn prices and lower production in Canada.

CANOLA

Production is forecast to increase by 8% due to higher harvested area. However, supplies are forecast to increase by only 4%, slightly above the 5 year average, due to lower carry-in stocks. Domestic crush is expected to remain stable at 3.2 Mt, while exports rise slightly to 3.6 Mt on steady demand from Japan, Mexico and China. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase but remain about 25% below the 5 year average. Due to higher Canadian and world canola/rapeseed production and lower prices in the soybean complex, the average price of canola is expected to fall.

FLAXSEED (excluding solin)

Production is forecast to increase by 25%, due to a rise in expected harvested area and yields. Supplies are also forecast to increase significantly. Exports are forecast to remain stable on steady demand from the EU. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise significantly, pressuring average prices.

SOYBEANS

Production is forecast to increase by 32%, to a record high 3.0 Mt, due to higher seeded area and yields. Supplies are also expected to increase significantly to a record 3.5 Mt, due to higher production and carry-in stocks. Domestic crush is expected to increase by 9% to a near record high, while exports rise by 18%. Prices are forecast to fall significantly, due to lower US soybean prices resulting from sharply higher soybean production in the US and South America.