For 2004-05, total Canadian pulse and special crops seeded area increased by 13%, as higher seeded areas for dry peas, lentils, dry beans, canary seed and buckwheat more than offset lower areas for chick peas, mustard seed and sunflower seed. Statistics Canada's (STC) seeded area survey, conducted from May 19 to June 4, 2004 and released on June 29, provided seeded area estimates for the main producing provinces, but for some of the smaller producing provinces the area seeded has been estimated by AAFC. Seeding was later than normal due to wet weather in Ontario, Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan. Crop development is, in general, about two weeks behind normal due to seeding delays and cool weather. The delay in crop development increases the risk of frost damage in the fall. Although, soil moisture reserves improved during May and June, parts of western Saskatchewan and Alberta continue to have below normal reserves. Overall, yields are forecast to be near trend due to the improved moisture conditions. It has been assumed that precipitation and temperatures will be normal for the growing and harvest periods, and that abandonment and average quality will be normal.

For 2004-05, total pulse and special crops production is forecast to increase by 23%, from 2003-04, to 4.53 million tonnes (Mt). Total supply is expected to increase by only 15% to 5.04 Mt, because of lower carry-in stocks. Although exports and domestic use are forecast to increase due to the higher supply and strong demand, carry-out stocks are also expected to increase. Average prices, over all grades and markets, are forecast to increase from 2003-04 for dry beans, chick peas and sunflower seed, decrease for dry peas, lentils, mustard seed and canary seed, and be the same for buckwheat. However, due to low world carry-in stocks, prices are expected to be very sensitive to any production problems. The main factors to watch in Canada are precipitation and temperatures during the growing and harvest periods, and crop development. Other factors to watch are exchange rates, and growing conditions in the major producing countries, especially the US, Australia, India, France and Turkey.

DRY PEAS

For 2004-05, production and supply are forecast to increase, due to a 10% increase in seeded area and higher yields. Production is expected to increase for yellow, green and other types. World supply is forecast to increase by 9% to 11.9 Mt, mainly because of higher production in Canada, EU, US and Australia, but this is expected to be mostly offset by increased use in both the feed and food markets. Canadian exports and domestic use are forecast to increase, due to the higher supply and lower prices. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase with a stocks-to-use (s/u) ratio of 16%. The average price, over all types, grades and markets, is forecast to decrease due to the higher supply.

LENTILS

Production and supply are forecast to increase, due to a 36% increase in seeded area and higher yields. Production is expected to increase for large, medium and small green, red and other types. World supply is expected to increase by 9% to 3.45 Mt, due mainly to higher production in Canada, Australia and India. Canadian exports are expected to increase, as Canada's share of world supply increases and prices decrease. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase, with a s/u of 18%. The average price, over all types and grades, is forecast to decrease due to the higher supply.

DRY BEANS

Production and supply are forecast to decrease, as a slight increase in seeded area is more than offset by lower yields and lower carry-in stocks. Production is expected to decrease for all classes, including white pea, pinto, black, red kidney, cranberry, Great Northern, small red and pink. Exports are forecast to decrease, due to lower supply, and carry-out stocks are expected to decrease to a low level. US production and supply are also expected to decrease due to a forecast 2% decrease in harvested area and lower carry-in stocks. Total US and Canadian supply of all major classes of dry beans is forecast to fall. The average price, over all classes and grades, is forecast to rise due to lower supply.

CHICK PEAS

Production is forecast to decrease marginally, due to an 8% decrease in seeded area. Production is expected to increase for the large kabuli type, but decrease for the desi and small kabuli types. However, supply is forecast to decrease for all types due to lower carry-in stocks. World supply is expected to decrease by 6% to 8.2 Mt. Canadian exports are forecast to decrease due to lower supply. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease to a low level. The average price, over all types, sizes and grades, is forecast to increase due to the lower supply.

MUSTARD SEED

Production is forecast to increase as a small decrease in seeded area is more than offset by higher yields. Production is expected to increase for the oriental type, decrease for the brown type and remain stable for the yellow type. However, supply is forecast to increase due to higher carry-in stocks. In the US, harvested area and production of the yellow type are expected to decrease. Canadian exports are expected to increase because of stronger demand and lower prices. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase, with a s/u ratio of 58%. The average price is forecast to remain stable for the yellow type, but decrease for the brown and oriental types. The average price, over all types and grades, is forecast to decrease.

CANARY SEED

Production and supply are forecast to increase, due to a 29% increase in seeded area and higher carry-in stocks. World supply is forecast to increase by 27% to 360,000 t. Canadian exports are expected to increase, because of higher supply and lower prices. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 43%. The average price is forecast to decrease because of the higher supply.

SUNFLOWER SEED

Production and supply are forecast to fall, due to a 22% decrease in seeded area. Production is expected to decrease for both types, confectionary and oilseed. In the US, harvested area, production and supply are expected to decrease for both types. World supply is expected to decrease by 4% to

26.7 Mt. Canadian exports and domestic use are expected to increase, causing carry-out stocks to decrease to a low level. The average price, over both types and all grades, is forecast to increase due to the lower supply.

BUCKWHEAT

Production is forecast to increase, due to an increase in seeded area, while supply decreases due to lower carry-in stocks. World supply is forecast to increase slightly to 2.2 Mt. Canadian exports are forecast to remain stable, while carry-out stocks decrease to a negligible level. The average price, over all grades and markets, is forecast to be the same as in 2003-04, as lower Canadian supply offsets pressure from higher world supply.