August 11, 2005
The area seeded
to grains and oilseeds (G&O) in 2005-06 is estimated to have
declined by about 0.6 million hectares (Mha) from 2004-05, to
25.5 Mha, as many fields were unseeded in eastern Manitoba
because of excessive rain in May and June. Although abandonment
is expected to be higher than normal in this region, normal
abandonment is assumed in other regions, and total Canadian
harvested area is forecast to rise marginally, to 23.4 Mha.
Yields in Saskatchewan are forecast to be above-trend due to
higher than normal precipitation. Growing conditions are mixed
across Canada, with crop development ahead of normal across the
western prairies but behind normal in eastern Manitoba. In
eastern Canada, yields are expected to be below trend due to hot
temperatures and a lack of moisture.
G&O is forecast to decline by 2%from 2004-05, to 62 million
tonnes (Mt), as lower expected wheat and coarse grain output
more than offsets a rise in oilseed production. Despite lower
production, the total supply of G&O for 2005-06 is forecast to
rise by 5% to the highest levels since 2001-02, due to the
largest carry-in stocks in over a decade. Assuming normal
growing and harvest conditions, quality is expected to return to
normal for 2005-06. As a result, total Canadian exports of G&O
are forecast to rise by 15%. Canadian prices will remain
pressured by low world prices and by burdensome world stocks.
Factors to watch are: weather conditions across the US and
Canada, the severity of disease and insect outbreaks, crude oil
prices and the Canada/US exchange rate.
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