SUMMARY

The area seeded to grains and oilseeds (G&O) in 2005-06 is estimated to have declined by about 0.6 million hectares (Mha) from 2004-05, to 25.5 Mha, as many fields were unseeded in eastern Manitoba because of excessive rain in May and June. Although abandonment is expected to be higher than normal in this region, normal abandonment is assumed in other regions, and total Canadian harvested area is forecast to rise marginally, to 23.4 Mha. Yields in Saskatchewan are forecast to be above-trend due to higher than normal precipitation. Growing conditions are mixed across Canada, with crop development ahead of normal across the western prairies but behind normal in eastern Manitoba. In eastern Canada, yields are expected to be below trend due to hot temperatures and a lack of moisture.

Production of G&O is forecast to decline by 2%from 2004-05, to 62 million tonnes (Mt), as lower expected wheat and coarse grain output more than offsets a rise in oilseed production. Despite lower production, the total supply of G&O for 2005-06 is forecast to rise by 5% to the highest levels since 2001-02, due to the largest carry-in stocks in over a decade. Assuming normal growing and harvest conditions, quality is expected to return to normal for 2005-06. As a result, total Canadian exports of G&O are forecast to rise by 15%. Canadian prices will remain pressured by low world prices and by burdensome world stocks. Factors to watch are: weather conditions across the US and Canada, the severity of disease and insect outbreaks, crude oil prices and the Canada/US exchange rate.

Complete report in PDF format: http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2005/pdf/13131.pdf