For 2005-06, Canadian grain and oilseed production is estimated by AAFC to decrease to 62.1 million tonnes (Mt), from 63.6 Mt in 2004-05, largely based on Statistics Canada’s (STC) “July 31 Estimate of Production of Principal Field Crops”.

Hot and dry weather experienced during August, after the survey was taken, may result in actual yields being lower than expected by farmers at the end of July. Production in western Canada is estimated to decrease by 1% from 2004-05, to 47.7 Mt, with lower yields more than offsetting a larger harvested area. In eastern Canada, production is estimated to be down by 6%, to 14.4 Mt. Crop development is near normal in western Canada, but in eastern Canada crops are stressed by hot and dry conditions. Harvesting in western Canada is about 15% complete, slightly behind average. The quality of all crops is expected to be near normal, although wheat protein levels may be below average due to above normal yields.

Total supply of grains and oilseeds in Canada for 2005-06 is forecast to increase, to a near record level, due to sharply higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to increase by 15% to about 27 Mt on support from improved quality. Total domestic usage is also forecast to increase but carry-out stocks will remain historically high. Generally, world prices are forecast to decline for wheat, but remain stable or rise slightly for corn and soybeans. Prices in Canada will continue to be pressured by the strong Canadian dollar. The major factors to watch are: harvest conditions in Canada and the US, import demand from China, EU export policy, ocean freight rates and the Canada/US exchange rate.

Complete report in PDF format: http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2005/pdf/13341.pdf