December 19, 2005
Federation - Crop Report December 2005 (excerpts)
estimates have been revised up slightly (by 3%) from last month
due to the milder finish.
The finishing conditions (mild
temperatures and above average rainfall) for the NSW crop have
good and this has seen yields across the state come in better
than expected. There have been some isolated
instances of damage from heavy rain and hail, but generally
yields have been good, with some crops achieving as high as 2.5
tonnes per hectare. Harvest is complete in the north, while in
the south some crops are still to be windrowed and harvest is
expected to continue until late December. Oil contents have been
variable, ranging from high 30’s to 45%. However, the average
appears to be around 40-42%.
Estimates for Victoria have been
left unchanged. Yields are generally good. A lot of canola is
still at the windrow stage and heavy winds are likely to cause
some yield loss. Like NSW, oils are somewhat disappointing in
the mid 30s to 40% range and although some of the more favoured
areas are showing good oil levels, these are still below what
would be expected in an average year. This is due to the late
planting, the dry conditions during much of the growing season
and the higher proportion of TT and IT canola.
Yields for South Australia have
been revised up due to the good finishing conditions and yields
in excess of 2 tonnes per hectare have been achieved despite the
late break to the season. Similarly to NSW and Victoria, oil
levels are likely to be a bit below average.
The harvest in Western Australia
is progressing well, despite rain disruptions. The Geraldton
zone is complete,
while the Albany zone is only 25% harvested. There has been some
frost damage but this has had minimal impact overall. Oil
quality is very good, averaging 45%. Yields have been increased
and the state is expected to produce in excess of 600,000
early crop is looking excellent. The make up is approximately
85% monounsaturated type, 10% polyunsaturated and 5%
confectionary. There is potential for an additional late plant
of 25000 hectares, with 60% of this in Queensland. The
Queensland plant would be predominantly polyunsaturated type,
while NSW would be a mix of poly, mono and confectionary.
However, there is still considerable uncertainty over the late
plant, particularly in Central Queensland, given current price
Some industry estimates have the
NSW mono crop as high as 120,000 tonnes however, our estimates
are for average yields of 1.5 t/ha in northern NSW and 1.8 t/ha
for the Liverpool Plains (see crop comments below). Early crops
will start to be harvested late January/early February.
The crops around Moree were
planted generally on ¾ to a full profile of moisture and have
benefited from reasonably mild conditions and good rain
throughout spring until now. However high temperatures this week
could be detrimental to seed yield and oil quality if they
continue. The majority of crops are late flowering to mid grain
fill and have good yield potential. Further rain and cooler
conditions would be advantageous to meet yield potential with
this heat stress coming at a crucial time of grain fill. We
estimate an average yield of 1.5t/ha for the northern region and
1.8 t/ha for the Liverpool. There is potential for higher
yields, but this will depend on the weather from now until
maturity. Insect pressure has been very high all season,
particularly in the Gunnedah region.
planting intentions indicate a similar crop to last year,
although there is upside potential.
Area planted in north Queensland
is a bit lower than expected due to the late cane season and
better cane prices
forecast for 2006. However, some upside is possible. At this
stage, only around half the potential area for the Burnett is
planted and with further rain, area could increase above present
estimates. Similarly the Darling Downs is only 50- 70% planted
and rain in the coming week will help secure estimated area.
The NSW north coast region is
around 50% planted and is expected to be down slightly on last
year due to the late cane season, mill disruptions to the sugar
harvest and wet conditions on the coast. Planting intentions for
the northern tablelands and slopes are for a slightly lower area
than last year, with this about 60% planted. The Lachlan and
Macquarie regions are expected to see small plantings this year
with improved water allocations and area planted is expected to
recover in the south.