February 15, 2005
Scientists from the University of
Florida and other southeastern universities are helping farmers
to get a jump on Mother Nature.
Combining computer crop models
with climate forecasts that predict whether an upcoming season
is likely to be a wet and stormy El Niño year, the researchers
have designed a unique Web-based decision-making tool that
farmers can use to minimize the risk of damage to their crops.
The interactive Web site is the
work of the Southeast Climate Consortium, a group of researchers
from universities in Florida, Georgia and Alabama. The project
is funded by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric
Administration and by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Risk
Management Agency.
“Most crops in Florida are
affected (by El Niño) in some way, but the effects depend on the
crop and its management,” said Jim Jones, a distinguished
professor of agricultural and biological engineering at UF’s
Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, or UF/IFAS. On
Sunday, he will present the consortium’s Web-based tool at the
American Association for the Advancement of Science’s annual
conference.
Known as
AgClimate.org, the tool
will allow farmers to get information on how different the
expected climate is going to be from normal, and will provide
estimates on how yields of particular crops might be affected.
The crop models are based on
historical information about soil, weather and management. To
help farmers get the most accurate predictions of climate
conditions for a growing season, the researchers compile records
of conditions during El Niño years, La Niña years and neutral
years, as well as information about historical yields of certain
crops during those seasons.
El Niño, a global climate event
occurring every two to seven years, is caused by a change in
atmospheric conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean leading
to unusually warm ocean temperatures. In the Southeastern United
States, the effects of El Niño are particularly strong, Jones
said. El Niños bring increased rainfall, stormy conditions and
cooler-than-normal winter temperatures.
Conversely, during a La Niña
year, the equatorial ocean is colder than average, leading to
winter temperatures that are warmer than normal in the
Southeast.
The Web tool can help farmers
minimize risks throughout the growing season, from likely
climate conditions affecting the establishment of a crop right
after planting, to conditions by harvest time to the possibility
of freezing, said Clyde Fraisse, an assistant extension
scientist in the UF/IFAS agricultural and biological engineering
department.
After the busy 2004 hurricane
season, farmers are especially interested in storm forecasts,
Fraisse said.
“They have to decide about the wind and hail damage insurance,
and then about the acreage to cover,” he said. Knowing whether
it’s likely to be an active storm season, the farmer also can
decide whether to insure his entire farm or just a couple of
fields, or even whether to change crops.
“They’re looking at this as a
way to help them streamline their decisions,” he said.
Currently, the Web site can simulate potential yields for
peanuts, potatoes and tomatoes based on the expected seasonal
climate, planting dates and management practices. Over the next
year, the researchers will add cotton and corn to the site, as
well as additional tools such as the range of expected dates of
freeze and frost. The researchers also will work with producers
around the region to fine-tune the Web site and maximize its
usefulness.
“This has tremendous
implications as a decision tool for our producers,” said Joan
Dusky, an assistant dean for the UF/IFAS extension service. “If
you knew it was going to be unusually wet in July, would you or
could you do anything differently to minimize risk? They’re
taking climate predictions one step farther, making it easier
for producers to make decisions.”
The Southeast Climate
Consortium, part of NOAA’s Regional Integrated Science
Assessment program, includes researchers from the University of
Georgia and from Auburn University in Alabama as well as Florida
State University and the University of Miami. Climate
predictions used in the models are developed by FSU’s Center for
Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies.
The consortium is unique in
that is the only NOAA Regional Integrated Science Assessment
program that focuses on agriculture and management of
climate-related risks, Fraisse said. |