The U.S. Department of Agriculture
(USDA) today raised the fiscal year 2005 forecast of
agricultural exports from $56 billion to $59 billion. This would
make FY 2005 the 3rd highest export sales year ever
following FY 2004 at $62.3 billion and FY 1996 at $59.8 billion.
"This new export forecast clearly demonstrates the strength
of the U.S. agricultural sector," said Agriculture Secretary
Mike Johanns. "We will continue to work vigorously to expand and
maintain economic opportunities for our farmers and ranchers
through the World Trade Organization negotiations and through
other agreements, such as the Central American- Dominican
Republic Free Trade Agreement."
This year, the United States is experiencing increased
competition and lower prices for bulk commodities such as
grains, oilseeds and cotton. Conversely, there is increased
demand for some U.S. high-value products, which are bolstered by
the weaker dollar. Horticultural sales are forecast at a record
$14.5 billion. Broad-based gains for many fruits and vegetables
as well as wines and essential oils are expected, largely due to
higher prices. Pork exports are also expected to reach a record
volume and value with strong demand from Japan, Mexico and
Canada. Very strong gains also are expected in dairy exports,
largely supported by non-fat dry milk powder.
Canada will remain the No. 1 market for U.S. agricultural
products at a projected $10.2 billion, while Mexico at $8.5
billion is expected to surpass Japan ($7.7 billion) for the
first time. Export sales to the European Union (EU) are
projected at $7 billion and China at $4.6 billion, to account
for the top five markets. U.S. agricultural exports to the
Western Hemisphere should exceed those to Asia by $2.9 billion.
Agricultural imports are forecast at a record $58 billion,
continuing a 35-year upward trend that has advanced at a faster
pace since 2003. With exports lower in 2005, the trade surplus
is expected to be about $1 billion. Demand for imports continues
to rise, but most of the current increase in import value is due
to higher prices. Consistent with long-term trends, rising
imports of fresh and processed fruits and vegetables, wines and
beer and essential oils account for more than half of the gain,
but large beef and snack food purchases have also been
significant in recent years.
USDA’s Economic Research Service, Foreign Agricultural
Service and World Agricultural Outlook Board release
agricultural trade forecasts quarterly. The summary and full
report of USDA’s "Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade" may be
accessed from the ERS Web site at
http://www.ers.usda.gov or
the FAS Web site at
http://www.fas.usda.gov. The next quarterly report will be
issued in May 2005.
