Washington, DC
March 31, 2005
USDA’s Prospective Plantings report, released at 8:30 a.m.,
confirmed that Asian soybean rust has not greatly impacted
farmers decisions to plant the 2005 soybean crop. Soybean
growers intend to plant an estimated 73.9 million acres, down 2
percent from last year’s record acreage. Soybean production in
2004 totaled 3.14 billion bushels, the largest U.S. soybean crop
in history. However, since soybean rust was first confirmed in
the continental U.S. on Nov. 9, 2004, there has been heightened
speculation of how growers would react to this fast-spreading,
yield-reducing disease.
To measure farmer awareness of Asian soybean rust and how its
discovery has affected their planting decisions for the 2005
crop, the USDA’s National
Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) included questions on
Asian soybean rust in the March Agricultural Survey. Each year
NASS conducts the March Agricultural Survey in every producing
State. Randomly selected farmers across the U.S. are asked what
they intend to plant during the upcoming growing season for a
number of crops, including soybeans. Due to the discovery of
Asian soybean rust in the U.S., farmers in the 31
soybean-producing states were also asked:
-
Have you seen,
read, or heard any information about Asian soybean rust? If
a farmer responded “yes,” they were then asked:
-
Was Asian
soybean rust a decisionmaking factor in your soybean
planting intentions for 2005? If a farmer responded “yes,”
they were asked two additional questions:
-
Did Asian
soybean rust result in an increase, decrease, or no change
in your soybean planting intentions?
-
By how many
acres did your soybean intentions change due to the Asian
soybean rust?
Results of
the March Agricultural Survey, published in the USDA’s
Prospective Plantings report, revealed that 89 percent of
soybean farm operators in the 31 soybean-producing States are
aware of Asian soybean rust and have seen, read, or heard
information about the disease. Awareness of Asian soybean rust
is highest among farms with 500-999 intended soybean acres and
lowest among farms with 1-99 intended soybean acres.
Only 11 percent of soybean producers reported that Asian soybean
rust was a decisionmaking factor in their soybean planting
intentions for 2005. Farms with 1-99 intended soybean acreage
were least likely to consider Asian soybean rust as a factor in
determining their planting intentions. When Asian soybean rust
was a factor in their planting intentions, 49 percent of soybean
farmers decreased their intended soybean acreage due to the
threat of Asian soybean rust, while only 9 percent increased
their intentions. The remaining 42 percent of the farmers,
though Asian rust factored into their planting decisions, had
not changed their intentions as of March 1, 2005. The greatest
percent of soybean farmers that have decreased their planting
intentions due to Asian rust was in the Delta States (AR, LA,
and MS) and Southeast region (AL, FL, GA, and SC), where 63
percent decreased their soybean planting intentions.
The complete Prospective Plantings report, including regional
level data on intended soybean acreage and the affect of Asian
soybean rust on planting intentions, is available at
http://www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/
TODAYRPT/pspl0305.pdf. This report
also contains 2005 planting intentions for corn, wheat, cotton,
and other crops.
RELATED NEWS
RELEASE from Purdue University
West Lafayette, Indiana
March 31, 2005
U.S. soybean
acreage down, but not out
Before even a single infectious spore lands on a cropfield this
spring or summer, Asian soybean rust is affecting U.S. soybean
production. The impact isn't as great as some might have
thought, however, said Chris Hurt, a
Purdue University
agricultural economist.
In fact, a U.S. Department of Agriculture report issued today
(Thursday, 3/31) might actually motivate growers to reconsider
their spring planting plans, Hurt said.
The USDA's Prospective Plantings Report, based on farmer
surveys, projected a 2 percent dip in national soybean acreage
and a 1 percent increase in national corn acreage this spring,
compared to 2004.
"There probably was not as big a reduction in the soybean
acreage as some had anticipated, especially if you go back in
January and early February when we saw people talking about a 3
to 5 percent reduction across the United States," Hurt said.
"One of the reasons that the reduction in bean acreage hasn't
been as big is because soybean prices for the new crop have
rallied relative to corn. So the incentive to plant soybeans has
increased over the last six weeks because of these higher
new-crop bean prices."
The USDA report estimated 2005 U.S. soybean acreage at 73.9
million acres. National corn acreage is projected at 81.4
million acres. The projected corn acreage would be the largest
in the United States since 1985.
Indiana farmers followed national trends. They told the USDA
they intend to plant 5.4 million acres of soybeans - down 3
percent from a year ago - and 5.8 million acres of corn, up 2
percent.
Soybean rust, a fungal disease that can devastate crop yields,
was a factor in the lower soybean acreage projections, the USDA
reported. Fifty-three percent of U.S. farmers and 48 percent of
Indiana farmers said they intend to plant fewer soybean acres
because of the rust threat.
"In this report, we saw a 150,000-acre reduction in soybeans and
100,000 more acres of corn in the state of Indiana," Hurt said.
"Those were about the numbers we had been thinking going into
this report here in the Eastern Corn Belt. As we look across the
country, we see where the incidence of rust is expected to be
higher and where, perhaps, fungicide spraying will have to occur
more times, there was greater reduction in soybean acreage."
Farmers across the country also told the USDA they plan to
substitute other oilseed crops, such as sunflowers and canola,
for soybean crops this spring.
Because the USDA report is based on estimates, farmers can - and
probably will - shift some corn acres back to soybeans, Hurt
said.
"It is important to note that this is a 'prospective' plantings
report," he said. "It is the intention of USDA to provide some
information to farmers of what the planting anticipation of they
and their neighbors is so that adjustments still can be made.
While it's getting close to the planting season here in the
Midwest, there still can be some modest adjustments.
"Over the last 10 years we have actually seen about a million
acres change on corn and soybeans, on average. That has been as
high as about 2 million acres, depending on the year."
The USDA report is available online at
http://www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/TODAYRPT/pspl0305.txt.
In 2004 U.S. farmers produced 11.8 billion bushels of corn and
3.14 billion bushels of soybeans. Both were U.S. production
records. The national corn yield was estimated at 160.4 bushels
per acre and soybean yield at 42.5 bushels an acre.
U.S. harvested soybean acreage totaled 73.9 million acres, with
corn harvested on 73.6 million acres.
Indiana farmers produced record crops of corn and soybeans. Corn
production was 929 million bushels, produced on 5.53 million
acres. Average corn yield was 168 bushels per acre. Hoosier
farmers produced 287 million bushels of soybeans from 5.52
million acres, at an average yield of 52 bushels per acre. |