Canada
September 20, 2005
Total Canadian pulse and special
crops production is estimated to increase by 4%, from 2004-05,
to 5.43 million tonnes (Mt), based on Statistics Canada’s (STC)
July 31 production estimates and AAFC forecasts where STC
estimates were not available. Total supply increased by 15% to
6.78 Mt, due to higher production and higher carry-in stocks.
This report incorporates STC’s year end carry-out stocks
estimates for 2004-05. Exports are forecast to increase by 15%
and domestic use by 7% due to stronger demand, but carry-out
stocks are also expected to increase. Average prices, over all
types, grades and markets, are forecast to increase for
chickpeas and mustard seed, decrease for dry peas, lentils, dry
beans, canary seed and sunflower seed, and be the same for
buckwheat.
STC’s yield estimates are
significantly higher than trend for Ontario, Saskatchewan and
Alberta, and much below trend for Manitoba. Since the survey was
conducted from July 20 to August 5 before the start of harvest,
the actual yields for crops in western Canada could be lower
than the estimates because of hot and dry weather in late July
and early August. Crop abandonment is expected to be slightly
lower than normal, except for Manitoba where significantly
higher than normal abandonment is expected. For western Canada,
harvest progress is about one to two weeks behind normal, but
significantly ahead of 2004-05. Harvest progress is about a week
ahead of normal for eastern Canada. Harvesting of dry peas and
lentils is mostly complete and a significant portion of
chickpeas and mustard seed have been harvested. Harvesting of
dry beans in eastern Canada is mostly complete, but only a small
portion has been harvested in western Canada. Only a small
portion of canary seed has been harvested. The buckwheat harvest
is expected to start in late September and the sunflower seed
harvest in early October. Overall quality is expected to be
better than in 2004-05, but generally lower than normal due to
rain in large areas of Alberta and Saskatchewan during harvest.
Although some late crops could still be damaged by frost, most
unharvested crops are sufficiently advanced in development that
frost would not damage them. The main factors to watch are
precipitation and temperatures during the rest of the harvest
period in Canada. Other factors to watch are the exchange rates
of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar and other
currencies, ocean shipping rates, and growing and harvest
conditions in major producing regions, especially United States,
India and Australia.
Complete report in PDF format:
http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2005/pdf/13542.pdf
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