Statistics Canada’s “Stocks of Canadian Grain at July 31, 2005” report indicated that carry-in stocks of the major Canadian grains and oilseeds (G&O) for 2005-06 are almost 50% higher than for 2004-05. As a result, the total supply of G&O for 2005-06 is about 4% above last year, although production is estimated to decrease to 62 million tonnes (Mt) from 64 Mt last year.

The pace of harvest in western Canada is behind normal due to untimely rains, particularly in Saskatchewan and Alberta, where harvest progress is well behind normal. The delay caused by rain may reduce the quality of the crop, but the average quality of the crop in western Canada is expected to be better than last year’s poor quality crop. Protein levels are expected to be below average which is a negative factor for wheat and durum but is positive for malting barley selection rates.

Generally, world prices for G&O are forecast to decline and prices in Canada will be further pressured by the strong
Canadian dollar. The major factors to watch are: harvest conditions in Canada and the US, import demand from China, EU export policy, ocean freight rates and exchange rates.

Complete report in PDF format: http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2005/pdf/13543.pdf