April 12, 2006
Paula
Leighton,
SciDev.Net
Central
America and the Caribbean will see a major decrease in summer
rainfall by the end of the century because of climate change,
say researchers.
They made
their prediction, published in the
Proceedings of the
National
Academy of Sciences
today, by comparing ten computer simulations of
climate change in the region.
All the
models calculated that, by the end of the 21st century, the area
would receive less rainfall between June and August, although
they did not agree on which year this trend would become
detectable.
The
predicted drop in rainfall varied between models. On average,
they suggested that by the last 30 years of the century, there
would be 25 per cent less rain than during 1901–1960.
Although
this equates to a reduction of just 0.5–1 millimetre of rain a
day over most of the region, the researchers say this figure is
substantial as the region currently receives just two
millimetres of rain a day in the summer.
The
researchers, led by David Neelin of the
University
of California at Los Angeles, United States, say this drop in
rainfall "stands out as demanding attention".
But Hugo
Beltrami, a professor of environmental sciences at Canada's St.
Francis Xavier University, says the results are interesting but
should be treated with caution.
"Comparing
models is tricky, due to their variation in resolution and
coverage," he told SciDev.Net. "Reaching accurate conclusions is
particularly difficult, especially when studying areas as
extensive as the Caribbean and Central America."
Link to paper in Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences
Reference:
Proceedings of the
National
Academy of Sciences
103, 6110 (2006) |