May, 2006
The
World Bank
Policy Research Working Paper 3917
Recent and prospective adoption of genetically modified cotton:
a global computable general equilibrium analysis of economic
impacts
by
Anderson, Kym;
Valenzuela, Ernesto;
Jackson, Lee Ann
Summary
The authors provide
estimates of the economic impact of initial adoption of
genetically modified (GM) cotton and of its potential impacts
beyond the few countries where it is currently common. They use
the latest version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP)
database and model. The results suggest that by following the
lead of China and South Africa, adoption of GM cotton varieties
by other developing countries-especially in Sub-Saharan
Africa-could provide even larger proportionate gains to farmer
and national welfare than in those first-adopting countries.
Furthermore, the estimated gains are shown to exceed those from
a successful campaign under the World Trade Organization's Doha
Development Agenda to reduce and remove cotton subsidies and
import tariffs globally.
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