Source: Agriculture and Agrifood Canada

GRAINS AND OILSEEDS OUTLOOK

INTRODUCTION

For 2006-07, the production of grains and oilseeds in Canada is estimated to decrease by 7% from 2005-06 to 62.3 million tonnes (Mt), slightly above the 10-year average of 60 Mt, based on Statistics Canada’s (STC) “September Estimate of Production of Principal Field Crops”. Yields are generally estimated to be near trend levels, although below 2005-06. Harvest in western Canada is nearly complete, well ahead of normal. All crops are expected to have a better than normal grade distribution. In western Canada, production has decreased by 9%, to 46.3 Mt due to lower yields. In eastern Canada, production is marginally above last year at 16.0 Mt.

Total supply of grains and oilseeds in Canada for 2006-07 is forecast to decrease by 1% from 2005-06, as the lower production more than offsets higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to increase by 9%, mainly because of higher wheat exports. Total domestic use is expected to rise, partly due to increased use of corn and wheat for ethanol production. Carry-out stocks are expected to fall by 25%, with declines expected for all crops except for oats, flaxseed and soybeans. Canadian prices in for all crops will continue to be pressured by the strong Canadian dollar but are expected to be higher than in 2005-06, except for flaxseed and soybeans. The major factors to watch are: southern hemisphere crop development, the biofuel market, ocean freight rates and exchange rates.

Full report: http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2006/pdf/17189g.pdf

PULSES AND SPECIAL CROPS OUTLOOK

INTRODUCTION

For 2006-07, total Canadian production of pulse and special crops is estimated to decrease by 19%, from 2005-06, to 4.3 million tonnes (Mt), based on Statistics Canada’s (STC) September production estimates and AAFC forecasts where STC estimates were not available. Estimated yields are lower than trend for dry peas, lentils, chickpeas mustard seed, canary seed and buckwheat, but higher for dry beans and sunflower seed. Crop abandonment is estimated to be lower than normal. Harvest progress is ahead of 2005-06 and ahead of normal, with combining generally complete, except for dry beans in eastern Canada and canary seed, sunflower seed and buckwheat in western Canada. Quality is expected to be, in general, normal to higher than normal. The risk of frost damage is low for unharvested fields due to the advanced stage of development.

Total supply is estimated to decrease by 13% to 5.85 Mt, as higher carry-in stocks partly offset the decrease in  production. Exports and carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease because of the lower supply, while domestic use increases slightly. Average prices, over all types, grades and markets, are forecast to increase for dry peas, lentils, mustard seed, canary seed and sunflower seed, decrease for dry beans and chickpeas, and be the same for buckwheat. The stronger Canadian dollar, compared to the US dollar, is expected to have the largest impact on dry bean and sunflower seed prices, as Canadian prices for these crops are directly related to US prices. The main factors to watch are Canadian weather conditions, especially precipitation, during the remainder of the harvest period. Other factors to watch are the exchange rates of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar and other currencies, ocean shipping rates and growing and harvest conditions in other major producing countries, especially the United States, Australia, India and Mexico.

Full report: http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2006/pdf/17189p.pdf