Source: Agriculture and Agrifood Canada

INTRODUCTION

For 2006-07, total Canadian production of pulse and special crops is estimated to decrease by 17%, from 2005-06, to 4.43 million tonnes (Mt), based on Statistics Canada’s (STC) July 31 production estimates and AAFC forecasts where STC estimates were not available. STC’s yield estimates are near trend levels, but lower than in 2005-06 for most crops, except higher for dry beans and sunflower seed. Crop abandonment is estimated to be lower than normal. Harvest progress is ahead of 2005-06 and ahead of normal, with combining of dry peas, lentils, chickpeas and mustard seed nearly complete. Combining of dry beans and canary seed is about half and three-quarters done, respectively, and combing of sunflower seed and buckwheat has started. Quality is expected to be, in general, normal. The risk of frost damage is low for unharvested fields due to the advanced stage
of development.

Total supply is estimated to decrease by 11% to 5.98 Mt, as higher carry-in stocks offset some of the decrease in production. This report incorporates STC’s carry-out stock estimates for 2005-06 and export data for all of 2005-06. Exports and carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease because of the lower supply, while domestic use increases. Average prices, over all types, grades and markets, are forecast to increase for dry peas, lentils, mustard seed, canary seed and sunflower seed, decrease for dry beans and chickpeas, and be the same for buckwheat. The stronger Canadian dollar, compared to the US dollar, is expected to have the largest impact on dry bean and sunflower seed prices, as Canadian prices for these crops are directly related to US prices. The main factors to watch are Canadian weather conditions, especially precipitation, during the remainder of the harvest period. Other factors to watch are the exchange rates of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar and other
currencies, ocean shipping rates and growing and harvest conditions in the major producing regions, especially the United States, Australia, India and Mexico.

Full report: http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2006/pdf/16979.pdf