While
2007 corn acreage will increase in the Corn Belt, a higher
percentage of corn acres are projected to be grown outside
the Corn Belt, said a
University of Illinois Extension farm financial
management specialist.
"This
shift in production could cause a small drag on national
corn yield; however, weather and other factors likely will
be more important in determining 2007 yields," said Gary
Schnitkey, who wrote "Geographical Distribution of Corn and
Soybean Planting Intentions," a report available at on U of
I Extension's farmdoc website at
http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/newsletters/fefo07_07/fefo07_07.html
The
report includes a color map showing the projected increases
nationwide plus a table comparing planted acres in 2006 and
2007 on a state-by-state basis. Projected increases are
based on the USDA National Agricultural Statistical
Service's report on planting intentions.
While
Illinois and Iowa have the largest projected increases in
corn acres in 2007, the next largest increases are in North
Dakota, Nebraska, Missouri, Indiana, Mississippi, and
Minnesota. The spread of increased corn acreage, though,
means that the percentage share of the Corn Belt states in
total acreage will decline by 2 percentage points.
"In
general, share of acreage is shifting to the Delta states,
Missouri, and North Dakota," said Schnitkey.
These
regional shifts could reduce the expected U.S. yield for
2007 as the states with higher expected yields (the Corn
Belt) have smaller acreage shares. Schnitkey calculates that
this means a 2007 yield one-half bushel below the 2006
yield.
"Larger
acreages of corn also may result in lower expected yields as
lower productivity farmland is brought into corn
production," he added. "However, acreage increases in
previous years have not led to statistically detectable
decreases in yields.
"More
corn-after-corn production likely will occur mostly in
Illinois and Iowa, states that have expected yields above
the U.S. average."
Schnitkey
believes that, overall, decreases in the expected U.S. corn
yield in 2007 will be small.
At the
same time that many states are increasing corn acres,
several states in the Southeast are projected to increase
soybean acres, Schniktey said. These include Georgia,
Alabama, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Florida.
"The five
states in the Southeast projected to gain soybean acres will
gain in share of total production," he said. "In aggregate,
these five states are projected to gain 0.6 percentage
points of share of production between 2006 and 2007. The
gain is relatively small because these states have
relatively few acres to begin with."
Other
than this switch, however, geographical patterns in
projected 2007 soybean plantings are difficulty to identify.
"Expected
U.S. yield should not be impacted by regional soybean shifts
in production because these shifts are minimal in nature,"
he said.