Ottawa, Canada
August 7, 2007
Grains and oilseeds outlook
AAFC forecasts total production of grains and oilseeds in
Canada to be marginally higher than 2006-07, at 62 million
tonnes (Mt), slightly above the 10-year average. The crops
started off well in the spring due to good soil moisture, but
conditions deteriorated in July as abnormally hot and dry
weather spread across much of both western and eastern Canada.
Yields for most crops are expected to be near average, but these
could decline significantly if the hot and dry weather continues
into August. Crop development, while variable due to delayed
seeding in some areas, is generally ahead of normal, with
harvesting beginning in winter wheat and barley. Quality of all
crops is expected to be above average due to the hot, dry
weather, with a better than normal grade distribution, although
test weights may be light. Protein levels in wheat and barley
are expected to be above average, while canola and flaxseed oil
content may be below normal.
In western Canada, production is
forecast to be up by 2% from last year at 46 Mt, while output in
eastern Canada is projected at 16 Mt, also 2% higher than in
2006-07. Domestic use is expected to rise in 2007-08, largely
due to increased ethanol production from corn and wheat. Exports
are forecast to decrease by 11%, due mainly to lower shipments
of wheat. Prices for most crops are expected to be higher than
in 2006-07, except for barley and oats, but will continue to be
pressured by the strong Canadian dollar. The major factors to
watch are: US and Canadian crop development and harvest
conditions, the bio-fuel market, ocean freight rates and the
Canada/US exchange rate.
Full report:
http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2007/pdf/20024g.pdf
Pulses and special crops
outlook
For 2007-08, total area seeded to
pulses and special crops in Canada increased by 14% from
2006-07, as higher areas for dry peas, lentils, chickpeas,
mustard seed and canary seed were partly offset by lower areas
for dry beans and buckwheat. The sunflower seed area was the
same as in 2006-07. Statistics Canada’s (STC) seeded area
survey, conducted during May 25 to June 5 and released on June
26, provided estimates for most pulses and special crops, but
the seeded area for buckwheat was forecast by AAFC. Soil
moisture conditions are mostly
normal, but there are dry areas in western Canada and Ontario.
Crop development is mostly ahead of normal because of the hot
weather in July. Harvesting of dry peas, lentils and mustard
seed has started. Overall, trend yields are expected for dry
peas, mustard seed, canary seed and sunflower seed, and below
trend for lentils, dry beans, chickpeas and buckwheat, assuming
that the weather will be normal for the remainder of the growing
period and for the harvest period. Also based on that
assumption, the abandonment rate and quality are
expected to be normal.
Total production in Canada is
forecast to increase by 13% to 4.6 million tonnes (Mt). Total
supply is expected to decrease by 6% to 5.28 Mt, as the increase
in production is more than offset by lower carry-in stocks.
Exports and domestic use are forecast to decrease due to the
lower supply. Carry-out stocks are expected to decrease to
historically low levels for most crops. Average prices, over all
types, grades and markets, are forecast to increase for 2007-08,
over 2006-07, for dry peas, lentils, dry beans, mustard seed,
canary seed, sunflower seed and
buckwheat, but decrease for chickpeas. The main factors to watch
are growing and harvest conditions in Canada and in other major
producing regions, especially the US, Australia, the EU, the
Middle East and India. Other factors to watch are currency
exchange rates and ocean shipping costs.
Full report:
http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2007/pdf/20024p.pdf |
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