United Kingdom
August 13, 2007
Source:
Biotechnology and Biological
Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)
A paper published in the
Royal Society journal
Interface on 15th August 2007 highlights recent research
that predicts that the range and severity of the plant disease
phoma stem canker is increased by global warming.
A research team led by Rothamsted Research has used a
weather-based model developed to predict the start and severity
of epidemics of phoma stem canker, a disease of oilseed rape and
other brassicas that causes losses of $900M worldwide, to
investigate the consequences of predicted climate change
scenarios.
The team of biologists and mathematicians found that warmer
winters significantly advanced the date of stem canker
appearance in spring and increased the severity of canker before
harvest. They also predicted that epidemics will spread north
from England to Scotland, where cankers do not currently occur
on oilseed rape.
The research was part of programme of work to reduce reliance on
use of pesticides in crop protection. "The phoma stem canker
forecast model was developed as a tool to help guide fungicide
applications timing by farmers and their advisors. We realised
we could extend the use of the model by incorporating climate
change scenario data to examine how global warming might impact
on future epidemics" explained Dr Neal Evans, a Plant
Pathologist at Rothamsted Research.
These results provide a stimulus to develop models to predict
effects of climate change on other plant diseases, especially in
delicately balanced agricultural or natural ecosystems. Such
predictions can be used to guide policy and practice in adapting
to effects of climate change on food security and wildlife. |
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