Ithaca, New York
July 11, 2007
Source:
Cornell University
Farmers will be the first to feel
the heat from global warming as they grapple with new and
aggressive crop pests, summer heat stress and other sobering
challenges that could strain family farms to the limit, warns
David Wolfe, a Cornell
University expert on the effects of climate change on
agriculture.
His gloomy assessment was part of a report by the Northeast
Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA) Synthesis Team, presented
July 11 at a press conference at the New York Botanical Garden.
Choices made today could have profound impacts on tomorrow's
agriculture and natural landscapes, he said.
In simultaneous press conferences in seven northeastern cities,
the team of independent experts, in collaboration with the Union
of Concerned Scientists, presented analyses of the impact of
climate change on key sectors in the northeastern United States.
By providing the best available science on the issue, they hope
to persuade opinion leaders, policy-makers and the public to
make informed choices about climate-change mitigation and
adaptation.
"Today's energy and emissions choices lead to starkly different
pictures of what the future holds for our farms, gardens and
natural landscapes in terms of climate change impacts," said
Wolfe, Cornell professor of horticulture and lead author of the
NECIA agriculture chapter.
While a warmer climate will trigger a longer growing season and
the opportunity to experiment with new crops, "it will also open
the door to invasion by new and aggressive crop pests, damaging
summer heat stress and serious challenges with water
management," said Wolfe.
"Adapting to change will add economic stress to family farms
already stretched to the limit."
The Northeast can also expect more frequent summer heat waves
that could compromise the health of crops, livestock and humans,
said Wolfe. What will happen in the future, he said, depends "on
whether we as a society follow the business as usual [higher]
emissions scenario or begin taking action now to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions."
For example, he added, "Our analysis found that under the higher
emissions scenario, parts of New York are projected to reach
temperatures by late century that would reduce milk production
up to
15 percent during summer months." Although farmers can better
cool dairy barns, the extra costs involved could squeeze out
small family farmers.
The apple industry also could be threatened as winters become so
warm that the "winter chilling" period required for maximum
flowering and yield is no longer met. "With a lower emissions
scenario, apple and other affected tree fruit crop industries
would have several more decades to adapt, possibly switching to
different varieties or crops," he said.
Of perhaps greatest concern in the next few decades, he
stressed, is increased pressure from aggressive, invasive
insect, disease and weed pests. Many of the most aggressive
weeds, research shows, grow faster with more carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere.
"On top of this, our study found that, at the higher emissions
scenario, weed species currently constrained to southern states
by our cold winter temperatures could encroach throughout the
southern half of New York by mid-century," said Wolfe.
His recommendations to farmers and gardeners included plowing
and tilling less to reduce the burn off of stored soil carbon
that releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and using less
nitrogen fertilizer, which produces nitrous oxide, a potent
greenhouse gas.
The full reports are available at <http://www.climatechoices.org>.
Wolfe's specific study also will
be published in a forthcoming issue of Mitigation and Adaptation
Strategies for Global Change.
Source:
Climate Choices, a
project of the Union of
Concerned Scientists
Our Changing Climate: Assessing the Risks to
California |
Source:
http://www.climatechoices.org/ca/site/our-changing-climate.html
In California and
throughout western North America, signs of a
changing climate are evident. During the last 50
years, winter and spring temperatures have been
warmer, spring snow levels in lower- and
mid-elevation mountains have dropped, snowpack has
been melting one to four weeks earlier, and flowers
are blooming one to two weeks earlier.
These regional changes are consistent with global
trends. During the past 100 years, average
temperatures have risen more than one degree
Farenheit worldwide.
California's climate is expected to become
considerably warmer during this century—how much
warmer depends on the rate at which human
activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels,
continue.
This new summary report highlights the latest
scientific projections for how a global
warming-induced warmer climate may impact
California. These projections, based on
state-of-the-art climate models, indicate that if
global warming emissions proceed at a medium to high
rate, temperatures are expected to rise 4.7 to 10.5
degrees F by the end of the century. In contrast, a
lower emissions rate would keep the projected
warming to 3 to 5.6 degrees F.
These temperature increases would have widespread
consequences including substantial loss of snowpack,
increased risk of large wildfires, and reductions in
the quality and quantity of certain agricultural
products. The growing severity of the consequences
as temerpature rises underscores the importance of
reducing emissions to minimize further warming.
Download the
full report:
Our Changing Climate: Assessing the Risks to
California (pdf)
Download the
full report:
Our Changing Climate:Assessing the Risks to
California Spanish version (pdf)
|
New Report on Climate Impacts on the
Northeast |
Source:
http://www.climatechoices.org/ne/resources_ne/nereport.html
If
heat-trapping emissions are not significantly
curtailed, global warming will substantially change
critical aspects of the region's character and
economy.
Downloads
Confronting
Climate Change in the U.S Northeast: Science,
Impacts and Solutions (PDF) A
report of the Northeast Climate Impacts
Assessment (NECIA), July 2007
State Summaries
- UCS produced fact sheets based on
Confronting Climate Change in the U.S Northeast:
Science, Impacts and Solutions
Connecticut
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
Climate Change
in the U.S. Northeast (PDF)
A report of the Northeast Climate Impacts
Assessment (NECIA), October 2006
The Changing
Northeast Climate: Our Choices, Our Legacy
(PDF)
UCS produced eight-page summary of the NECIA
climate change report, October 2006
Reducing Heat
Trapping Emissions in the Northeast
(PDF)
UCS produced fact sheet, October 2006
The Northeast Climate
Impacts Assessment (NECIA) is a collaboration
between the Union of Concerned Scientists and a team
of independent experts using state-of-the-art tools
to assess how global warming will affect the
Northeast United States following two different
paths: A higher emissions path with continued rapid
growth in global warming pollution, and a lower
emissions path with greatly reduced heat trapping
emissions.
The goal of the
assessment is to provide opinion leaders,
policymakers, and the public with the best available
science as we make informed choices about reducing
our heat-trapping emissions and managing the changes
we cannot avoid.
For information on the
technical papers behind the report, a full list of
collabotors and more about the NECIA, visit
www.northeastclimateimpacts.org. |
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