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Effects of climate change on U.S. agriculture

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Ithaca, New York
July 11, 2007

Source: Cornell University

Farmers will be the first to feel the heat from global warming as they grapple with new and aggressive crop pests, summer heat stress and other sobering challenges that could strain family farms to the limit, warns David Wolfe, a Cornell University expert on the effects of climate change on agriculture.

His gloomy assessment was part of a report by the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA) Synthesis Team, presented July 11 at a press conference at the New York Botanical Garden.

Choices made today could have profound impacts on tomorrow's agriculture and natural landscapes, he said.

In simultaneous press conferences in seven northeastern cities, the team of independent experts, in collaboration with the Union of Concerned Scientists, presented analyses of the impact of climate change on key sectors in the northeastern United States. By providing the best available science on the issue, they hope to persuade opinion leaders, policy-makers and the public to make informed choices about climate-change mitigation and adaptation.

"Today's energy and emissions choices lead to starkly different pictures of what the future holds for our farms, gardens and natural landscapes in terms of climate change impacts," said Wolfe, Cornell professor of horticulture and lead author of the NECIA agriculture chapter.

While a warmer climate will trigger a longer growing season and the opportunity to experiment with new crops, "it will also open the door to invasion by new and aggressive crop pests, damaging summer heat stress and serious challenges with water management," said Wolfe.
"Adapting to change will add economic stress to family farms already stretched to the limit."

The Northeast can also expect more frequent summer heat waves that could compromise the health of crops, livestock and humans, said Wolfe. What will happen in the future, he said, depends "on whether we as a society follow the business as usual [higher] emissions scenario or begin taking action now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions."

For example, he added, "Our analysis found that under the higher emissions scenario, parts of New York are projected to reach temperatures by late century that would reduce milk production up to
15 percent during summer months." Although farmers can better cool dairy barns, the extra costs involved could squeeze out small family farmers.

The apple industry also could be threatened as winters become so warm that the "winter chilling" period required for maximum flowering and yield is no longer met. "With a lower emissions scenario, apple and other affected tree fruit crop industries would have several more decades to adapt, possibly switching to different varieties or crops," he said.

Of perhaps greatest concern in the next few decades, he stressed, is increased pressure from aggressive, invasive insect, disease and weed pests. Many of the most aggressive weeds, research shows, grow faster with more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

"On top of this, our study found that, at the higher emissions scenario, weed species currently constrained to southern states by our cold winter temperatures could encroach throughout the southern half of New York by mid-century," said Wolfe.

His recommendations to farmers and gardeners included plowing and tilling less to reduce the burn off of stored soil carbon that releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and using less nitrogen fertilizer, which produces nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas.

The full reports are available at <http://www.climatechoices.org>. 

Wolfe's specific study also will be published in a forthcoming issue of Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change.


Source: Climate Choices, a project of the Union of Concerned Scientists
 

Our Changing Climate: Assessing the Risks to California
Source: http://www.climatechoices.org/ca/site/our-changing-climate.html

In California and throughout western North America, signs of a changing climate are evident. During the last 50 years, winter and spring temperatures have been warmer, spring snow levels in lower- and mid-elevation mountains have dropped, snowpack has been melting one to four weeks earlier, and flowers are blooming one to two weeks earlier.

These regional changes are consistent with global trends. During the past 100 years, average temperatures have risen more than one degree Farenheit worldwide.

California's climate is expected to become considerably warmer during this century—how much warmer depends on the rate at which human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels, continue.

This new summary report highlights the latest scientific projections for how a global warming-induced warmer climate may impact California. These projections, based on state-of-the-art climate models, indicate that if global warming emissions proceed at a medium to high rate, temperatures are expected to rise 4.7 to 10.5 degrees F by the end of the century. In contrast, a lower emissions rate would keep the projected warming to 3 to 5.6 degrees F.

These temperature increases would have widespread consequences including substantial loss of snowpack, increased risk of large wildfires, and reductions in the quality and quantity of certain agricultural products. The growing severity of the consequences as temerpature rises underscores the importance of reducing emissions to minimize further warming.

Download the full report:
Our Changing Climate: Assessing the Risks to California
(pdf) 

Download the full report:
Our Changing Climate:Assessing the Risks to California Spanish version (pdf)

New Report on Climate Impacts on the Northeast
Source: http://www.climatechoices.org/ne/resources_ne/nereport.html

If heat-trapping emissions are not significantly curtailed, global warming will substantially change critical aspects of the region's character and economy.

Downloads

Confronting Climate Change in the U.S Northeast: Science, Impacts and Solutions (PDF) A report of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA), July 2007

State Summaries - UCS produced fact sheets based on Confronting Climate Change in the U.S Northeast: Science, Impacts and Solutions

Connecticut
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont

Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast (PDF)
A report of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA), October 2006

The Changing Northeast Climate: Our Choices, Our Legacy (PDF)
UCS produced eight-page summary of the NECIA climate change report, October 2006

Reducing Heat Trapping Emissions in the Northeast (PDF)
UCS produced fact sheet, October 2006

The Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA) is a collaboration between the Union of Concerned Scientists and a team of independent experts using state-of-the-art tools to assess how global warming will affect the Northeast United States following two different paths: A higher emissions path with continued rapid growth in global warming pollution, and a lower emissions path with greatly reduced heat trapping emissions.

The goal of the assessment is to provide opinion leaders, policymakers, and the public with the best available science as we make informed choices about reducing our heat-trapping emissions and managing the changes we cannot avoid.

For information on the technical papers behind the report, a full list of collabotors and more about the NECIA, visit www.northeastclimateimpacts.org.

 
 

 

 

 

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