Ottawa, Canada
October 12, 2007Source:
Agriculture and
Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Grains and oilseeds outlook
Total production of grains and
oilseeds (G&O) in Canada in 2007-08 is estimated at about 61
million tonnes (Mt), slightly lower than 2006-07 and slightly
above the 10-year average based on Statistics Canada’s (STC)
“September Estimate of Production of Principal Field Crops”.
Yields for most crops are estimated to be near average despite
the hot and dry weather in western and eastern Canada in July.
Harvest is generally complete
except for corn and soybeans in eastern Canada. The quality of
all crops is expected to be near average with a
better than normal grade distribution. Protein levels in wheat
and durum are expected to be near average, while the oil content
of the canola is near normal. In western Canada, production is
similar to last year at 45 Mt but in eastern Canada it is
marginally lower than last year at 16 Mt.
Due to lower carry-in stocks and lower production, the supply of
G&O in Canada for 2007-08 is expected to decrease by about 8%
from last year. Exports are forecast to fall by 14%, due mainly
to lower exports of wheat. Domestic use is expected to rise due
to higher use of corn and wheat for ethanol production. Prices
for most crops are expected to be higher than in 2006-07. The
major factors to watch are: southern hemisphere production,
Asian demand, the bio-fuel market, ocean freight rates and the
Canada/US exchange rate.
Full report:
http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2007/pdf/20640g.pdf
Pulses and special crops
outlook
For 2007-08, total production of
pulses and special crops in Canada is estimated to increase by
12% from 2006-07 to 4.58 million tonnes (Mt), based on
Statistics Canada’s (STC) September production estimates, except
for buckwheat which is an AAFC forecast. STC’s yield estimates
are generally lower than trend. Compared to 2006-07, yield
estimates are lower for dry beans, chickpeas, mustard seed,
canary seed and sunflower seed, but higher for dry peas and
lentils. Crop abandonment is estimated to be lower than normal.
The harvest is near completion except for sunflower seed and
buckwheat, which are normally harvested later than the other
crops. Quality is expected to be normal, assuming normal weather
conditions during the remainder of the harvest period. The risk
of frost damage is generally low for unharvested fields due to
the advanced stage of development.
Total supply is expected to
decrease by 4% to 5.34 Mt due to lower carry-in stocks, causing
exports, domestic use and carry-out stocks to decrease. Average
prices, over all types, grades and markets, are forecast to
increase from 2006-07 for dry peas, lentils, dry beans, mustard
seed, canary seed, sunflower seed and buckwheat, but decrease
for chickpeas. The main factor to watch is weather, especially
precipitation, during the remainder of the harvest period. Other
factors to watch are crop conditions in other major producing
regions, especially the US, Australia, India and Mexico,
currency exchange rates and ocean shipping costs.
Full report:
http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2007/pdf/20640p.pdf |
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