Brussels, Belgium
August 7, 2008
Favourable weather conditions and an increase in the planted
area farmed should lead to a total cereals harvest close to 301
M tonnes for this year in the European Union, 43 M tonnes more
than in 2007. This represents an increase of 16% on the 2007
harvest and 9% on the past five years' average production. This
forecast, published today by the European Commission, is based
on an updated analysis by the Commission's in-house scientific
service, the Joint Research Centre (JRC), using an advanced crop
yield forecasting system[1].
The yield forecast for
cereals is 5 tonnes per hectare across the EU and thus
significantly higher than last year and the average over the
past five years. The total EU27 area used for cereals in
2008 is estimated to have increased by 5 % compared to 2007, due
to a 0 % set-aside rate[2]
and high cereals prices.
Looking at individual crop
figures across the EU27 over the past five years and as
of August 5th 2008, the latest yield forecasts show
the following trends:
- soft wheat: 5.6 t/ha
(+4.8%)
- durum wheat: 3.1 t/ha
(+12.8%)
- barley: 4.4 t/ha (+5.7%)
- grain maize: 6.9 t/ha
(+9.5%)
- rape seed: 2.9 t/ha
(-2,1%)
- sunflower: 1.6 t/ha
(+1.7%)
- potato: 26.5 t/ha (-1.1%)
- sugar beet: 70.3 t/ha
(+19.0%)
The greatest increase is for
sugar beet, cultivated mainly in northern Europe, with the
main producers Germany and France, which benefited from
favourable meteorological conditions, increasing yield forecasts
significantly.
Maize yield is expected
to be 20.1% higher than last year and 9.5% higher than the past
five years' average, with very high yield increases for Romania
(+122%), Bulgaria (+193%) and Hungary (+94%), countries that had
been suffering from drought last year.
The winter of 2007/2008 was
rather mild, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, but
cooler than the exceptionally mild winter of 2006/07.
Temperatures followed a seasonal course with warmer average
temperatures compared to the long term average (period
1975–2007) for Central and Eastern Europe. June and July have
been slightly cooler for France, northern Spain and the United
Kingdom, representing favorable conditions for still active
crops.
Rainfall throughout the season
has been abundant and well distributed for Spain but has led to
over-wet situations in France and northern Italy. On the other
hand, northern Germany, Poland, the Netherlands and Denmark
experienced a long lasting dry period starting in spring and
continuing into June 2008, coupled with some high temperatures.
This situation has impacted primarily upon winter crops and led
to lower production and local failures.
In spite of heavy rainfall at
the end of July in Romania, overall weather conditions for the
countries hit by last year's drought have been good.
Detailed forecasts by crop and
country have been published in
MEMO/08/537
Further information:
http://mars.jrc.ec.europa.eu/marsstat/
[1]
Disclaimer: The crop yield
forecasts are based on an integrated use of statistical
analysis, crop growth simulation models, observed climatic data
and remote sensing observations. They are issued based on the
hypothesis that the remaining part of the season will not face
additional extreme events which would have an impact on summer
crops (maize, potato, sunflower, sugar beet). The latest
forecasts have been issued on the 5th of August based
on data up to the 31st of July 2008.
[2] See the press
release
IP/07/1402
Crop yield forecasts for
2008
Source:
http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2008/pdf/23404.pdf
This Memorandum provides
additional information, maps and graphs related to the
IP/08/1251 on the forecast of crops production. During the
agricultural season, the European Commission's Joint Research
Centre (JRC) regularly issues forecasts for the main crop yields
and produces analyses of the impact of weather conditions on
crop production. These are based on methodologies using
satellite remote sensing and mathematical models which simulate
crop growth.
The models and methodology in
use have been conceived, experimentally developed and
operationally implemented within the JRC. The crop yield
forecasts, analyses and full description of the methodology are
available at:
http://mars.jrc.ec.europa.eu/marsstat/ and
http://mars.jrc.ec.europa.eu/marsstat/Bulletins/2008.htm
Latest issues are the
European forecast update and the
Climatic Update as of 5th of August
EU 27 Total
yield forecasts – 5th August 2008
|
CROPS
|
Yield in tons
per hectare
|
|
2007
|
JRC 2008
forecast
|
Average 5 years
|
% 2008/07
|
% 2008/ Average
|
|
TOTAL CEREALS
|
4.53
|
5.03
|
4.71
|
+11.1
|
+6.7
|
|
Soft wheat
|
5.10
|
5.65
|
5.39
|
+10.8
|
+4.8
|
|
Durum wheat
|
2.84
|
3.09
|
2.74
|
+9.0
|
+12.8
|
|
Total wheat
|
4.84
|
5.35
|
5.04
|
+10.4
|
+6.1
|
|
Spring barley
|
3.83
|
3.89
|
3.70
|
+1.5
|
+5.1
|
|
Winter barley
|
4.81
|
5.27
|
4.96
|
+9.7
|
+6.3
|
|
Total barley
|
4.21
|
4.42
|
4.19
|
+5.0
|
+5.7
|
|
Grain maize
|
5.77
|
6.93
|
6.33
|
+20.1
|
+9.5
|
|
Other cereals
(1)
|
3.18
|
3.47
|
3.16
|
+9.3
|
+6.6
|
|
Rape seed
|
2.80
|
2.94
|
3.00
|
+4.8
|
-2.1
|
|
Sunflower
|
1.46
|
1.65
|
1.62
|
+13.1
|
+1.7
|
|
Potato
|
28.40
|
26.52
|
26.81
|
-6.6
|
-1.1
|
|
Sugar beet
|
62.97
|
70.26
|
59.02
|
+11.6
|
+19.0
|
- Yield figures are rounded
to 100 kg
- Rice is not included
- (1) Sorghum, rye, maslin,
oats, triticale, mixed grain other than maslin, millet,
buckwheat
- Source EUROSTAT New Cronos
and EES: last update2008-22-07
- ** Joint Research
Centre/Institute for the Protection and Security of the
Citizen/Agriculture Unit/ AGRI4CAST action
Technical Note:
a) Countries with areas below 10000 ha are not counted in.
b) The usable production is generally 2-3 M tons below the
harvested production.
c) The average production includes the exceptional year
2004/2005 where set aside rate was set at 5% instead of the
reference rate of 10%. Therefore the comparison with the
five-year average may overestimate the decrease.
d) in 2007/08 the set aside rate was set to 0 %
[ Figures and graphics available in PDF and WORD PROCESSED ]
The NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) is calculated
from Remote Sensing Imagery using the red and near-red
information, in this case SPOT-VGT. The NDVI expresses the
development and health of vegetation. The higher the values the
more biomass is present. In the map, NDVI values have been
cumulated over the time period where the main crops in Europe
start their growing season until the last available date. The
cumulated values can be directly linked to the vegetation
biomass. Thus higher cumulated values indicate a good vegetation
growth and health. Furthermore, the cumulated values of the
current growing season have been compared to the ones of each
available year in the time series.
[ Figures and graphics available in PDF and WORD PROCESSED ]
Analysis of crop yield by
crop type and country for the EU27
Total Wheat
(soft and durum varieties)
|
EU 27 TOTAL WHEAT
forecast 5th of August 2008
|
|
Country
|
Yield t/ha
|
|
2007*
|
MARS 2008
forecasts
|
Avg 5yrs
|
%08/07
|
%08/5yrs
|
|
EU27
|
4.8
|
5.4
|
5.0
|
+10.4
|
+6.1
|
|
AT
|
4.8
|
5.1
|
5.0
|
+5.8
|
+1.0
|
|
BE
|
7.8
|
8.6
|
8.4
|
+10.2
|
+2.9
|
|
BG
|
2.2
|
3.4
|
3.0
|
+55.8
|
+15.8
|
|
CZ
|
4.9
|
4.9
|
4.9
|
+1.3
|
+1.3
|
|
DE
|
7.0
|
7.3
|
7.3
|
+5.2
|
+0.9
|
|
DK
|
6.6
|
6.9
|
7.0
|
+5.1
|
-1.5
|
|
EE
|
3.3
|
3.4
|
2.7
|
+2.1
|
+24.8
|
|
ES
|
3.5
|
3.2
|
2.8
|
-7.8
|
+14.3
|
|
FI
|
3.9
|
3.8
|
3.6
|
-2.6
|
+5.9
|
|
FR
|
6.2
|
7.2
|
6.8
|
+16.3
|
+7.1
|
|
GR
|
2.2
|
2.3
|
2.1
|
+4.7
|
+8.7
|
|
HU
|
3.6
|
4.4
|
4.0
|
+21.3
|
+9.5
|
|
IE
|
8.1
|
9.2
|
8.8
|
+13.7
|
+4.7
|
|
IT
|
3.4
|
3.8
|
3.4
|
+10.6
|
+9.8
|
|
LT
|
3.9
|
3.8
|
3.5
|
-3.8
|
+7.0
|
|
LU
|
5.6
|
6.3
|
6.1
|
+11.8
|
+2.4
|
|
LV
|
3.6
|
3.5
|
3.1
|
-2.6
|
+11.3
|
|
NL
|
7.2
|
8.3
|
8.4
|
+14.8
|
-1.4
|
|
PL
|
3.9
|
3.8
|
3.8
|
-3.1
|
+0.9
|
|
PT
|
2.2
|
2.1
|
1.6
|
-5.6
|
+27.6
|
|
RO
|
1.6
|
2.8
|
2.4
|
+75.6
|
+14.3
|
|
SE
|
6.3
|
6.3
|
5.9
|
+0.8
|
+6.6
|
|
SI
|
4.2
|
4.4
|
4.2
|
+6.0
|
+4.8
|
|
SK
|
3.8
|
3.9
|
4.0
|
+2.5
|
-0.5
|
|
UK
|
7.4
|
8.0
|
7.8
|
+8.3
|
+2.3
|
* Source EUROSTAT New Cronos and EES: last update 2008-07-22, DG
AGRI Balance sheet: last update 2008-08-01
Note: Countries with areas below 10000 ha are not counted in
The total wheat yield is expected to be better than last
year with a significant increase of 10.4%. The resulting EU
production is expected to be around 141 million tonnes (Mt)
which would be an increase of more than 20.9 Mt (+17.4%) from
last year.
Compared to the yield average of the last five years (2003 to
2007) an increase of 6.1 % is estimated
[ Figures and graphics available in PDF and WORD PROCESSED ]
and in terms of production an increase of 10.2 % for EU 27 .
Durum wheat yields are expected to be higher than the
past 5 years' average for the four major producers: Italy
(+12.2%), France (+6.3%), Spain (+11.7%) and Greece (+4.3%).
When looking at the comparison with 2007: Italy (3.1t/ha)
and France (4.9t/ha) show higher figures (+15.0% and +13.9%) but
Greece (2.1t/ha) and Spain (2.5t/ha) are very similar to last
year yield (+0.3% and -0.7%).
For soft wheat only three countries are foreseen with
lower figures than average for Denmark (-1.5%), Slovakia
(-0.5%) and The Netherlands (-1.4%). Romania, Bulgaria and
Baltic countries are forecasted with more than 10% higher yield
than average, this difference is even much higher for Estonia
and Portugal (> +24%).
By comparison with 2007 only Poland, Lithuania and Latvia
have lower expectations than last year (around -3%) due to
unfavourable dry conditions. Spain and Portugal have lower
forecasts for 2008 compared to the exceptional 2007 yield (-8.7%
and -5.6%). On the other hand, yields for the three main EU
producers, whose 2007 harvests were not good, show improvements:
France with 7.45t/ha (+16.2%), Germany with 7.33t/ha (+5.2%) and
the UKwith 7.96t/ha (+8.3%).
Analysis of crop yield by
crop type and country for the EU27
Total Barley
(winter and spring varieties)
|
EU 27 TOTAL BARLEY
yield forecast 5th of August 2008
|
|
Country
|
Yield t/ha
|
|
2007*
|
MARS 2008
forecasts
|
Avg 5yrs
|
%08/07
|
%08/5yrs
|
|
EU27
|
4.2
|
4.4
|
4.2
|
5.0
|
5.7
|
|
AT
|
4.2
|
4.7
|
4.5
|
11.9
|
3.9
|
|
BE
|
8.0
|
8.2
|
7.8
|
2.7
|
4.9
|
|
BG
|
2.3
|
3.3
|
2.7
|
46.4
|
23.7
|
|
CZ
|
3.8
|
4.2
|
4.1
|
11.1
|
4.2
|
|
DE
|
5.4
|
5.9
|
5.8
|
8.4
|
1.6
|
|
DK
|
4.9
|
4.7
|
5.1
|
-4.0
|
-7.8
|
|
EE
|
2.6
|
2.6
|
2.3
|
-0.9
|
13.2
|
|
ES
|
3.6
|
3.4
|
2.7
|
-6.0
|
23.5
|
|
FI
|
3.7
|
3.3
|
3.4
|
-10.3
|
-1.9
|
|
FR
|
5.6
|
6.5
|
6.1
|
17.4
|
6.7
|
|
GR
|
2.3
|
2.3
|
2.3
|
1.3
|
0.8
|
|
HU
|
3.2
|
3.7
|
3.5
|
15.2
|
7.1
|
|
IE
|
6.7
|
7.0
|
6.7
|
3.2
|
3.7
|
|
IT
|
3.5
|
4.0
|
3.7
|
13.4
|
9.6
|
|
LT
|
2.7
|
2.4
|
2.6
|
-10.4
|
-9.8
|
|
LV
|
2.4
|
2.4
|
2.2
|
0.3
|
8.7
|
|
NL
|
5.6
|
6.1
|
6.0
|
9.6
|
1.5
|
|
PL
|
3.2
|
3.1
|
3.1
|
-4.5
|
0.9
|
|
PT
|
1.9
|
2.0
|
1.6
|
7.2
|
27.8
|
|
RO
|
1.5
|
2.4
|
2.2
|
67.0
|
10.3
|
|
SE
|
4.5
|
4.3
|
4.2
|
-3.2
|
3.5
|
|
SI
|
3.7
|
4.1
|
3.6
|
11.7
|
13.5
|
|
SK
|
3.1
|
3.7
|
3.5
|
17.0
|
6.1
|
|
UK
|
5.8
|
6.1
|
5.9
|
4.8
|
3.7
|
* Source EUROSTAT New Cronos and EES: last update 2008-07-22, DG
AGRI Balance sheet: last update 2008-08-01
Note: Countries with areas below 10000 ha are not counted in
For EU 27 the yield is expected to be higher than last
year by 5.0%, reaching 4.4 t/ha. The forecasted production is
63.4 Mt, which corresponds to [ Figures and graphics available
in PDF and WORD PROCESSED ]an increase of 10.3% from last year
and 10.5% more than the 5 years average.
Within the four main producing countries, Spain is still
contributing the most to the overall positive yield expectations
for the last 5 years average with a yield increase of 23.5%
(3.4t/ha). Despite the good potential it is still lower than the
exceptional 2007 (-6%). Production is summing up to 11.8 Mt.
Germany, as the second barley producer in 2008 expects a yield
increase of +1.6% on the average of the last five years and
+8.4% to 2007. Production is expected to be 10.9% higher than
last year (11.5Mt).
France and United Kingdom are expected to reach much better
yield than last disappointing 2007 harvest with respectively
6.5t/ha (+17.4%) and 6.1t/ha (+4.8%). Production has also made
progress with +21.7% and +18.7% respectively compared to last
year. Romania and Bulgaria are foreseen with much better figures
than last 2007 season. They are forecasted with 2.4t/ha (+67%)
and 3.3t/ha (+46%) respectively.
Analysis of crop yield by
crop type and country for the EU27
Grain Maize
|
EU 27 GRAIN MAIZE
yield forecast 5th of August 2008
|
|
Country
|
Yield t/ha
|
|
2007*
|
MARS 2008
forecasts
|
Avg 5yrs
|
%08/07
|
%08/5yrs
|
|
EU27
|
5.8
|
6.9
|
6.3
|
+20.1
|
+9.5
|
|
AT
|
9.9
|
9.8
|
9.4
|
-1.8
|
+3.5
|
|
BE
|
12.0
|
12.0
|
11.3
|
+0.2
|
+6.2
|
|
BG
|
1.5
|
4.3
|
3.9
|
+193.1
|
+8.9
|
|
CZ
|
6.8
|
6.9
|
6.5
|
+1.1
|
+6.0
|
|
DE
|
9.5
|
9.3
|
8.6
|
-1.8
|
+7.5
|
|
ES
|
9.9
|
9.9
|
9.76
|
-0.6
|
+1.0
|
|
FR
|
9.4
|
9.2
|
8.5
|
-2.7
|
+8.2
|
|
GR
|
8.9
|
8.7
|
8.94
|
-2.0
|
-2.5
|
|
HU
|
3.6
|
7.0
|
5.8
|
+94.5
|
+21.0
|
|
IT
|
9.3
|
9.6
|
8.9
|
+3.4
|
+8.4
|
|
NL
|
11.9
|
12.4
|
11.4
|
+4.2
|
+9.4
|
|
PL
|
6.6
|
5.6
|
5.5
|
-14.5
|
+2.5
|
|
PT
|
5.5
|
5.8
|
5.3
|
+3.8
|
+8.3
|
|
RO
|
1.6
|
3.5
|
3.3
|
+122.9
|
+3.4
|
|
SI
|
7.5
|
8.1
|
7.1
|
+8.0
|
+14.3
|
|
SK
|
4.0
|
5.8
|
5.3
|
+46.2
|
+9.9
|
* Source EUROSTAT New Cronos and EES: last update 2008-07-22, DG
AGRI Balance sheet: last update 2008-08-01
Note: Countries with areas below 10000 ha are not counted in
The grain maize yield for EU 27 is estimated at 6.9 t/ha.
This is a significant increase of 9.5% compared to the five
years average. In terms of productions 60 Mt are forecasted.
This is an increase of 4% on the five year average.
For the two largest producers France and Italy yield forecasts
show a clear increase compared to the five year average with 9.2
t/ha for France (compared to 8.5 t/ha) and with 9.6 t/ha for
Italy (compared to 8.9 t/ha). For both countries we do see a
slight increase in area compared to last year but below the 5
year average. This leads to a forecasted increase in production
for Italy of 7.3% and for France of 2.3% compared to last year.
[ Figures and graphics available in PDF and WORD PROCESSED
]France is expected to produce 14.4 Mt and Italy is expected to
produce 10.5 Mt.
Romania and Hungary as the other two main producers of grain
maize experience a good season after the drought in 2007. For
Hungary yield expectations are raised by 21 % compared to the
five years average and almost doubled compared to last year. The
production is estimated at 8.4 Mt.
Production for Romania is forecasted to have more than doubled
in 2008 compared to 2007 with a production of 8.7 Mt. The yield
forecast is set to 3.5 corresponding to an increase of 3.4 % on
the five years average and 123% on last year's yield.
The remaining countries with the exception of Greece are above
the five years average.
Analysis of crop yield by
crop type and country for the EU27
Sunflower and
sugar beet, rapeseed and potatoes
[ Figures and graphics
available in PDF and WORD PROCESSED ]
[ Figures and graphics available in PDF and WORD PROCESSED ]
[ Figures and graphics available in PDF and WORD PROCESSED ]
[ Figures and graphics available in PDF and WORD PROCESSED ]
Analysis of crop yield by
crop type and country for the EU27
Rice
[ Figures and graphics
available in PDF and WORD PROCESSED ]
At EU27 level, an average season is expected: yields are
forecasted to be slightly lower than the average (-0.2%)
although higher than those of last year (+0.3%).
Among the main producers, forecasts are lower than last year in
Spain (7.16 t/ha, -0.9%) and Portugal (5.91 t/ha, -3.0%).
Good potential is shown in Greece, whose yield (8.12 t/ha) is
forecasted to be higher both than 2007 and than the average
(respectively +4.0% and +4.9%).
A good season is also expected for the eastern countries: 3.81
t/ha for Hungary (+4.2% compared to the last year), 3.62 t/ha
for Romania (+3.8%), and 4.91 t/ha for Bulgaria (+5.9%). The
latter could have experienced problems during pollens
development because of a sudden drop in temperatures.
Favourable conditions for blast disease development have been
verified in north eastern Italy.
Analysis of pastures and
forage crops for the EU27
The winter was moderately warm with higher than average
precipitation over most of the grazing and forage production
areas. These conditions supported the development of green
biomass and set the conditions for an early first cut. However,
the dry period that followed reduced dry matter production over
most of northern Europe, Great Britain and Ireland as well as on
the Atlantic costal regions of northern France.
In these areas, a delay in the second cut is expected. Overall
conditions were more positive in the forage producing areas of
central France as well as in the Mediterranean Basin as a whole.
In these areas a regularly timed second cut, as well as a
regular continuation of the grazing season is expected.
Source:
http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=MEMO/08/537&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en
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