Ottawa, Canada
December 12, 2008Source:
Agriculture and
Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Grains and oilseeds outlook
Canadian production of grains and
oilseeds (G&O) for 2008-09 is estimated by Statistics Canada
(STC) at a record 72.6 million tonnes (Mt), up from 60.7 Mt in
2007-08. Yields were mostly up from STC’s October estimates with
records set for spring wheat, barley, canola and oats. Harvest
completion was ahead of normal as good late harvest weather and
little frost offset the cool and wet conditions in the early
fall. Crop quality is near normal. Total supply is forecast to
increase by only 8.9 Mt from 2007-08 as the increased production
is partially offset by lower carry-in stocks and imports. Total
domestic use is forecast to rise significantly while exports
remain relatively stable. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise
from last year’s levels and to be slightly above the five year
average. The main factors to watch are: the unprecedented
volatility of commodity markets, the global credit crisis, and
potential global economic slowdown.
Full report:
http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2008/pdf/24593g.pdf
Pulses and special crops
outlook
(dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas, mustard seed, canary
seed, sunflower seed, buckwheat)
For 2008, total production of
pulse and special crops (P&SC) in Canada increased by 16% to 5.3
million tonnes (Mt), based on Statistics Canada November
production estimates. Compared to 2007, average yields were
higher for all P&SC. Crop abandonment was generally higher than
for 2007, but lower than the five-year average. Indications are
that quality was generally similar to, or lower than, 2007.
Total supply increased by only 11% because the increase in
production was partially offset by lower carry-in stocks. Total
exports of P&SC are forecast to fall slightly to 3.6 Mt. Total
carry-out stocks are expected to more than double to 1.2 Mt.
Carry-out stocks are expected to rise for all P&SC, except for
chickpeas and canary seed. Average prices, over all types,
grades
and markets, are forecast to decrease from 2007-08 for dry peas,
chickpeas and canary seed and increase for lentils, dry beans,
mustard and sunflower seed. The main factors to watch are: the
volatility of commodity markets, the impacts of tighter
worldwide credit conditions, ocean freight rates, the Canada-US
dollar exchange rate and the crop conditions on the Indian
subcontinent and in the Middle East.
Full report:
http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2008/pdf/24593p.pdf
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