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February 7, 2008
Source:
Science via The Meridian
Institute's Food Security and Ag-Biotech News
Author:David B. Lobell et al.
This article analyzes the
potential risks posed by climate change for crops in 12
food-insecure regions of the world, with the goal of identifying
adaptation priorities. The risk analysis is based on statistical
crop models, and climate projections for 2030 from 20 "general
circulation" models. The results indicate South Asia and
Southern Africa as two regions that, without sufficient
adaptation measures, will likely suffer negative impacts on
several crops that are important to large food-insecure human
populations. The article notes that uncertainties vary widely by
crop, and therefore priorities will depend on the risk attitudes
of investment institutions. For example, one set of institutions
might wish to focus on those cases where negative impacts are
most likely to occur, in order to maximize the likelihood that
investments will generate some benefits. By this criterion,
South Asia wheat, Southeast Asia rice, and Southern Africa maize
appear as the most important crops in need of adaptation
investments. Other institutions might wish to focus on crops for
which possible negative impacts would be extreme, even if there
is a lower likelihood of these impacts occurring. A different
subset of crops is identified for this criterion, with several
South Asian crops, Sahel sorghum, and (again) Southern Africa
maize appearing as the most in need of attention.
The article can be viewed online
at the link below.
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/319/5863/607?ijkey=04CySFc/NojU.&keytype=ref&siteid=sci |
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