Ottawa, Canada
July 2, 2008Source:
Agriculture and
Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Grains and oilseeds outlook
The area seeded to grains and
oilseeds (G&O) for 2008-09 is estimated by Statistics Canada to
have increased slightly from 2007-08. Higher areas seeded to
wheat and oilseeds have more than offset lower area for coarse
grains and summerfallow. It is assumed that precipitation will
be normal for the growing and harvest periods, and that the
abandonment rate and crop quality will be normal. Trend yields
have generally been assumed for eastern and western Canada with
the exception of corn where average yields are expected to be
lower than 2007-08.
Due to higher area and yields, production in 2008-09 of G&O in
Canada is forecast to increase to about 62 million tonnes (Mt)
from 60 Mt in 2007-08. However, supply is expected to decrease
because of significantly lower carry-in stocks. Total G&O
exports are forecast to decrease mainly due to lower exports of
coarse grains. Carry-out stocks are expected to decrease to a
historically low level. World and Canadian prices for G&O are
expected to remain historically high due to strong demand and
low world carry-in stocks. The main factors to watch are: the
impact of the flooding in the US on corn area and yields,
exchange rates and export policies in competing countries.
Full report:
http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2008/pdf/23049g.pdf
Pulses and special crops
outlook
(dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas, mustard seed, canary
seed, sunflower seed, buckwheat)
For 2008-09, total area seeded to
pulse and special crops in Canada is expected to rise marginally
from 2007-08, as higher areas for dry peas, lentils, and mustard
seed are partly offset by lower areas for dry beans, chickpeas,
canary and sunflower seed. Statistics Canada (STC) recently
released its preliminary estimates of principal field crop areas
for 2008, which provided estimates for all pulse and special
crops. It is assumed that precipitation will be normal for the
growing and harvest periods, and that the abandonment rate and
quality will be normal. Trend yields are assumed for both
western and eastern Canada.
Total production in Canada is forecast to increase marginally to
4.7 million tonnes (Mt). Total supply is expected to fall
marginally as lower carry-in stocks are partially offset by the
increase in production. Exports are forecast to decrease
marginally due to the lower supply, while domestic use is
expected to remain relatively unchanged. Carry-out stocks are
expected to fall to historically low levels for most crops.
Average prices, over all types, grades and markets, are forecast
to increase for 2008-09 for all pulse and special crops, with
the exception of dry peas. The main factors to watch are growing
conditions in Canada, the US, the EU, Australia, the Middle East
and the Indian subcontinent.
Full report:
http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2008/pdf/23049p.pdf |
|
