Ottawa, Canada
January 26, 2009Source:
Agriculture and
Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Grains and oilseeds outlook
For 2008-09 to-date, prices
for grains and oilseeds (G&0) in Canada have fallen sharply
from the 2007-08 highs under pressure from the world
economic slowdown. Canadian exports are forecast to be
relatively unchanged while total domestic use rises.
Carry-out stocks are forecast to rebound sharply from the
tight levels of 2007-08. For 2009-10, the area seeded to
wheat and durum is expected to decline while the area seeded
to barley, corn, canola and soybeans rises. The areas for
oats, flaxseed and summerfallow are expected to be
relatively unchanged from 2008-09.
Normal precipitation, abandonment and quality are also
assumed. For all crops, average yields are expected to
decrease from 2008-09 and return to the trend level. Total
production of G&O in Canada is forecast to decrease by 8%,
to 66.5 Mt. Total supply is forecast to decrease only
slightly to 84.8 Mt, as sharply higher carry-in stocks
largely offset the drop in production. Exports are expected
to increase slightly while total domestic use decreases.
Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall significantly to near
the 10 year average. Prices are expected to be steady to
lower. The main factors to watch are: commodity prices and
input costs, the severity of the world recession, exchange
rates, condition of the US winter wheat and South American
crops, and spring soil moisture conditions.
Full report:
http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2009/pdf/24951g.pdf
Pulses and special crops
outlook
(dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas, mustard seed, canary
seed, sunflower seed, buckwheat)
For 2008-09 to-date, prices
for most P&SC in Canada, with the exception of dry peas and
canary seed, have risen from 2007-08 due to relatively tight
supplies. Total Canadian exports for all P&SC are forecast
to fall marginally due to the world economic slowdown.
Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise for most crops. For
2009-10, total area seeded to P&SC in Canada is forecast to
be unchanged from 2008-09, with decreased area for dry peas
and dry beans, and increases for chickpeas, lentils, mustard
seed, canary seed and sunflower seed. Average yields are
generally expected to decrease from 2008 and trend yields
are assumed for both western and eastern Canada. Total
production in Canada is forecast to fall by 6% to 5.0
million tonnes (Mt). Total supply is expected to rise
marginally to 6.3 Mt, as higher carry-in stocks more than
offset the fall in production.
Exports, domestic use and carry-out stocks are forecast to
rise slightly due to the higher supply. Average prices are
generally forecast to fall but remain unchanged for
chickpeas and canary seed. The main factors to watch are
commodity prices and input costs, precipitation in Canada
over the winter, the Canada-US dollar exchange rate, the
impacts of the world recession and planting progress in
major producing regions, especially the Indian subcontinent,
United States, European Union, Australia and the Middle
East.
Full report:
http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2009/pdf/24951p.pdf |
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