Ottawa, Canada
March 6, 2009Source:
Agriculture and
Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Grains and oilseeds outlook
For 2009-10, the area
seeded to wheat, durum and oats is expected to decline while
the area seeded to corn, canola, flaxseed and soybeans
rises. The areas for barley, rye and summerfallow are
expected to be relatively unchanged from 2008. The outlook
assumes normal precipitation, abandonment and quality and
that average yields will decrease to the trend level. Total
production is forecast to decrease by 10%, to 65.2 Mt but
total supply is expected to decline only slightly due to
higher carry-in stocks. Total usage is forecast to fall due
to lower exports and slightly lower domestic use and exceed
production. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall to near
the 10 year average with prices expected to be slightly
lower. The main factors to watch are: the impact of the
world economic slowdown on commodity and input prices,
dryness in the southern US, Argentina and China, exchange
rates and North American seeding conditions.
Full report:
http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2009/pdf/25374g.pdf
Pulses and special crops
outlook
(dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas, mustard seed, canary
seed, sunflower seed, buckwheat)
For 2009-10, total area
seeded to P&SC in Canada is forecast to be relatively
unchanged from 2008-09, with decreased area for dry peas and
dry beans, and increases for chickpeas, lentils, mustard
seed, canary seed and sunflower seed. Average yields are
generally expected to decrease from 2008 and trend yields
are assumed for both western and eastern Canada. Total
production in Canada is forecast to fall by 5% to 5.0
million tonnes (Mt). However, total supply is expected to
rise by 5% to 6.2 Mt, as large carry-in stocks more than
offset the fall in production. Exports, domestic use and
carry-out stocks are forecast to rise slightly due to the
higher supply. Average prices are generally forecast to fall
but remain unchanged for chickpeas and canary seed. The main
factors to watch are: commodity prices, input costs, the
Canada-US dollar exchange rate, the severity of the world
recession and planting progress in major producing regions,
especially the Indian subcontinent, United States, European
Union, Australia and the Middle East.
Full report:
http://www.seedquest.com/News/releases/2009/pdf/25374p.pdf |
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