Welasco, Texas
March 24, 2009
With a March 31 planting deadline
looming, a severe drought and faltering economics may push Lower
Rio Grande Valley cotton growers to plant one of the smallest
crops on record, according to Texas AgriLife Extension Service
personnel.
“We won’t know until after the planting deadline, but
projections are that Valley growers will plant only about 60,000
acres of cotton this year,” said Dr. Luis Ribera, an
AgriLife Extension
agricultural economist in Weslaco.
That’s less than one-third of what is normally planted in the
four-county southern tip of Texas, according to statistics from
the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Risk Management Agency.
“If this drought continues, it’s going to be a nasty one,” he
said, referring to this year’s cotton crop. “As it is, we’ll
probably have one of the smallest crops ever, dating back to the
1920s when such records started being kept.”
Growers normally plant about 200,000 acres each of cotton and
grain sorghum in South Texas, Ribera said. But since 2006, a
severe drought year, acreage has steadily declined.
Growers planted 260,000 acres in 2006, about 100,000 acres in
2007, and 92,000 acres last year, according to USDA records.
Several factors, not just drought, are driving down acreage this
year, Ribera said.
“Cotton market prices are low, below 50 cents per pound, which
is far below the break-even price here for growers,” he said.
“And with the economy the way it is, the domestic and
international demand for our cotton will probably decrease.”
The relatively low price of oil also weakens demand for U. S.
cotton, he added.
“Synthetic fabrics that compete with cotton, like polyester, are
made from oil derivatives so they will be cheaper to make,
compared to previous years,” Ribera said.
The upside for Valley cotton growers who also plant grain
sorghum, he added, is that grain prices are holding steady at
about $6 per hundredweight, thanks to the national demand on
grains for livestock feed and ethanol.
But with scant rain since last summer, getting either crop
started in South Texas could prove challenging, according to
John Norman, a retired AgriLife Extension cotton integrated pest
management entomologist and now a private consultant.
“We’ve got some deep soil moisture if we could get cotton roots
down that far,” he said. “But the problem will be getting a
stand, getting seeds to germinate in the dry upper levels of
soil. Any light rains we’ve gotten are quickly dried up, in a
matter of hours, by the strong winds we’ve been having.”
Indecision of whether and what to plant, coupled with a strong
but dry cold front in early March has delayed planting this
year, both Norman and Ribera agreed.
“Most planting of sorghum and cotton would be done by now,”
Ribera said, “but not this year. Many are still waiting to see
if it will rain and others are trying to decide what to plant,
if at all.”
To help growers with planting decisions, Ribera and Larry
Falconer, an AgriLife Extension economist at Corpus Christi,
have developed a decision aid tool.
It can be found at
http://agfacts.tamu.edu/~lfalcone/newweb/software.htm.
“It’s a spreadsheet,” he said. “Growers input their data and the
program weighs all factors, including insurance compensation for
failed crops, to help them decide.”
Prior to the acreage decline that began in 2006, the Rio Grande
Valley’s cotton crop was worth about $70 million at the farm
gate, with a statewide economic impact of $130 million, Ribera
said.
Grain sorghum crops have traditionally been valued at $65
million, with a statewide impact of $120 million.
“Unless we get timely rains and the markets improve, I’m afraid
we’re in for a dismal cotton and grain season,” Norman said. |
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