Washington, DC
May 1, 2009
Source:
International Cotton Advisory
Committee
World production is forecast to
exceed mill use in 2009/10. As a result, world cotton stocks are
expected to increase by 2% to a record of 13.4 million tons by
the end of July 2010.
World cotton production is forecast slightly lower in 2009/10 at
23.4 million tons. Decreasing returns, more attractive prices
for competing crops, and expected difficulties in financing
inputs are discouraging farmers from planting cotton. Increases
in production in India and the United States could be more than
offset by declines in China (Mainland) and Brazil.
World cotton mill use is expected to increase slightly to 23.1
million tons in 2009/10, assuming a modest recovery in world
economic growth in 2010.
Cotton mill use is expected to partially recover in China
(Mainland), India and Pakistan, but to continue to decline in
many smaller consuming countries in Asia, North America and
Europe.
World cotton trade is expected to partially recover in 2009/10.
World imports are projected 11% higher at 6.6 million tons. An
expected increase in imports by China (Mainland) to 1.7 million
tons would significantly contribute to this rebound. India is
expected to account for most of the expected rise in exports,
with shipments forecast to more than double to 1.2 million tons.
Based on a price forecast of 59 cents per pound for 2008/09 and
an expectation of rising stocks, the ICAC Price Model 2007
forecasts a season-average Cotlook A Index of 57 cents per pound
in 2009/10 (the 95% confidence interval is between 46 and 65
cents per pound). However, major uncertainties regarding
projected cotton trade in 2009/10 pose substantial downward
risks to the forecast.
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
|
. |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
2009/10 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
2009/10 |
|
. |
Million Tons |
Million Bales |
|
Production |
26.21 |
23.6 |
23.4 |
120.4 |
108 |
107 |
|
Consumption |
26.28 |
22.9 |
23.1 |
120.7 |
105 |
106 |
|
Exports |
8.34 |
6.1 |
6.6 |
38.3 |
28 |
30 |
|
Ending Stocks |
12.49 |
13.1 |
13.4 |
57.4 |
60 |
62 |
Cotlook A Index*
(season-average, U.S. cents/lb) |
72.90 |
59** |
57*** |
72.90 |
59** |
57*** |
|
*
Season-average Cotlook A Index (U.S. cents per pound).
** The price projection for 2008/09 is based on the ending
stocks/consumption ratio in the world-less-China (Mainland) in
2006/07, in 2007/08 (estimate), and in 2008/09 (projection), on
the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2007/08
(estimate) and 2008/09 (projection), and on the average price
for the first nine months of 2008/09. 95% confidence interval:
57 to 62 cents per pound.
*** The price projection for 2009/10 is based on the ending
stocks/consumption ratio in the world-less-China (Mainland) in
2007/08 (estimate), in 2008/09 (projection), and in 2009/10
(projection), and on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world
imports in 2008/09 (projection) and 2009/10 (projection). 95%
confidence interval: 46 to 65 cents per pound.
The International Cotton
Advisory Committee is an association of 41 governments of
cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the
Committee publishes information related to world cotton
production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical
information on cotton production technology |
|
