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Meeting of the International Grains Council


London, United Kingdom
December 6, 2013

Members of the International Grains Council (IGC) met on 6 December under the
Chairmanship of Mr Eugene Philhower of the US. The Council welcomed Iraq as the 27th
member of the Grains Trade Convention, 1995, with effect from 1st January 2014. Croatia
attended the Session for the first time, following its accession to the EU in July 2013.

The Council considered the latest developments in the global grains and oilseeds markets,
the medium-term supply and demand outlook, recent changes in national policies and
various administrative matters. The meeting was followed by a Round Table discussion on
importer and exporter perspectives on prospects for global soyabean and soyameal trade.

The Council’s latest forecasts for supply and demand (see www.igc.int) indicated more
comfortable conditions for 2013/14 than in the previous year. As outlined in the IGC’s
monthly Grain Market Reports, the most recent published on 28 November, a record grains
crop was forecast for 2013/14. While demand was also expected to recover, a substantial
surplus was expected and end-season stocks were forecast up by 41 million tons (m t) y/y at
a four-year high, including a 27m expansion for maize. The daily IGC Grains and Oilseeds
Index (GOI) had weakened steadily as supply prospects improved, and was down 15% y/y,
led by a 32% decline for maize.

The Secretariat gave its first estimate for wheat production in the next crop year (2014/15),
based on the progress of winter wheat crops. While the global area was expected to rise,
yields were likely to return to more average levels from the excellent results seen in 2013/14,
resulting in a forecast 1.6% decline in world output.

Rice supplies were expected to remain comfortable with ample availabilities in the major
exporters, and trade set to expand with larger deliveries to Far East Asia. For oilseeds, the
Secretariat highlighted that global soyabean trade was likely to exceed 100m t for the first
time in 2013/14, led by particularly strong demand from China, with Brazil consolidating its
position as key supplier. Canada’s record canola crop had improved global rapeseed/canola
supplies, with stocks seen rising to a three–year high.

The Secretariat also presented its annual assessment of the five-year projections for supply
and demand balances from 2014/15 to 2018/19:

  • World total grains output was expected to rise by an average of 1.6% p.a. over the
    outlook period, exceeding 2 billion tons by 2016/17.
  • Firm demand growth was also anticipated and, while the absolute level of stocks was
    likely to rise, the ratio of stocks to use was projected to fall slightly to 18% by the end
    of 2018/19, from 20% anticipated for 2013/14.
  • The projections indicated a marked increase in trade volumes through the five-year
    period, as higher demand was met by production growth in the key exporters, most
    notably in South America and the Black Sea region.
  • Rice output and demand growth were expected to be closely matched, and world
    stocks were likely to remain comfortable.
  • Soyabean and rapeseed/canola production growth was expected to outpace grains
    and rice, against a background of strong demand from the crushing industry.
  • The Council agreed to make the projections publicly available on the IGC website.

The Council considered various administrative matters including an update from the
Secretariat on progress with its economic work programme and its involvement in the AMIS
initiative. Mr Earl Geddes, CEO of the Canadian International Grains Institute updated
members on the grain marketing transition in Canada.

The Council received statements from the OECD and WTO on recent developments, and
welcomed the participation of observers from WFP, Bolivia, Brazil, Taipei (Chinese)
Separate Customs Territory and Vietnam. Mr Kilian Greter made a statement as Chairman
of the Food Assistance Committee.

The Council welcomed Saudi Arabia’s invitation to host its 40th Session and an International
Grains Forum in Jeddah in December 2014.

The Round Table discussion on prospects for soyabean and soyameal trade, which was
moderated by the IGC Chairman, involved experts on both importer and exporter
perspectives1. The discussions focused on the key challenges for South American exporters,
prospects for China’s demand and the impact of asynchronised approval of GM soyabean
events on world trade.



More news from: IGC (International Grains Council)


Website: http://www.igc.org.uk

Published: December 6, 2013

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