United Kingdom
Novmeber 24, 2105
UK barley will have to compete with global barley and sorghum for feed grain demand if it is to win export business to China. This article looks at the 2015/16 outlook for these crops.
Introduction
Over recent years barley and sorghum have become increasingly popular as livestock and poultry feed ingredients in China. In 2013, China turned to these alternative feed ingredients due to their affordability against maize. In an effort to decrease state stockpiles of maize, before the stockpiling policy is due to be scraped next year, China may reduce imports of alternative feed ingredients in 2015/16. The UK has recently signed a trade deal that will allow UK barley to be exported to China, but how much impact would a reduction in Chinese imports have on UK barley?
Global and domestic barley production forecast up for 2015/16
Global barley production for 2015/16 is forecast at 144.8Mt, 8% higher than the five year average and 3% higher than last season (USDA). Output in the EU, the biggest barley producer and exporter, is forecast to stay relatively similar to the previous season. Whereas the world’s second largest barley exporter, Australia, is forecast to produce 8.9Mt in 2015/16 despite previous weather concerns, 11% up on the year – Figure 1.
Looking at domestic barley production, the UK provisionally produced 7.28Mt for 2015/16 (Defra). This is an increase of 365Kt on the year and if confirmed, would be the largest UK barley crop since 1997. The increase in domestic barley production comes partly as a consequence of the CAP greening requirements and rotational considerations supporting the area, as well as strong yields.
Read the full article in Prospects
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