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‘Regret’ culture may impede adoption of risk-based IPM on-farm


United Kingdom
December 15, 2015

The 2015 Agronomists’ Conference was the first activity conducted by AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds under its ‘Risk, resilience, reward’ communication theme.

Taking place on 8 December, a key message, delivered by Gareth Hughes, Professor of Plant Disease Epidemiology SRUC, was that many decision-makers think about ‘regret’ more than ‘reward’.

This ‘regret’ culture was cited as one of the biggest potential barriers to the uptake of integrated pest management (IPM).

By focusing on reasons not to act (such as not to spray) rather than reasons to act, Prof Hughes said this could be a key driver in ‘the application of more sprays than necessary and the evolution of resistance’. 

Watch the video

Reflections on risk, resilience and reward

Gareth Hughes - Professor of Plant Disease Epidemiology, SRUC

Fresh direction

This year, the conference received a fresh direction from AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds research strategy, which was launched earlier this year.

The conference Chair, George Lawrie, grower and AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds Research and Knowledge Transfer Committee member, provided comment on the conference theme.

He said that agronomic resilience is at the ‘heart of the latest research strategy’ because resilient arable businesses are much better placed to ride out sustained periods of cost and price pressures.

Mr Lawrie said that resilience needs to be understood before action is taken and that the key is to understand the multitude of risks that growers’ businesses face.

George Lawrie

Chair, George Lawrie, commenting on the conference theme

Conference findings

The conference featured a strong line-up of speakers who delivered presentations designed to help the audience weigh up risks, make even better agronomic decisions and deliver real rewards to growers.

The main conference findings will be presented over the next few weeks as a series of news items on the AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds website.

All conference presentations and videos can be viewed at cereals.ahdb.org.uk/agconf

Definitions of risk, resilience and reward

At the start of the day, Prof Hughes set the scene by providing definitions of risk, resilience and reward.

He discussed the use of risk in everyday language, stating how it can be applied with various ‘shades of meaning – dread, danger, probability, variability and uncertainty’.

It was reported that, although terminologies differ, risk has two core components, ‘a probability’ and ‘an impact’ and that management strategies for reducing both are of interest.

From an agronomic perspective, Prof Hughes said risk is often considered as the probability of need for treatment.

He stated that the decision to treat is based on the ‘risk attitudes of the decision maker’, adding that attitudes to risk must be considered when creating management tools for growers.

Gareth Hughes

Gareth Hughes, Professor of Plant Disease Epidemiology SRUC, said that many decision-makers think about ‘regret’ more than ‘reward’.

Regret: ‘The inverse of reward’

At the conference, Prof Hughes introduced ‘regret’ as a fourth ‘R’ – defined as ‘the difference in outcome between the action we took and the best action we could, in retrospect, have taken’.

It was argued that decision makers in agriculture are often more interested in decisions that minimise ‘expected regret’ in the long run, rather than the ‘expected reward’.

Crucially, it was felt that this focus on regret is one of the reasons why it is so difficult to deliver influential evidence-based models.

As many people fear ‘false negatives’ – where evidence suggests a treatment is not necessary, whereas, with hindsight, it was probably necessary – the evidence ‘not to treat’ provided by models needs to be substantial.

Prof Hughes emphasised that we must take a ‘shared responsibility’ and work together to integrate farmer experience, evidence in the crop and the expertise of the advisor, and improve the quality of decisions on-farm.

Chairman’s closing remarks

Mr Lawrie closed the conference with three comments inspired by the day’s presentations:

A comment on risk: “At the end of the day, all of our decisions need to be put into the context of the whole farm business. In times of price volatility, an understanding of the market and cost risks are increasingly important.” 

A comment on resilience: “To make our businesses truly resilient, we must take a wider view of risks and focus on shared decision-making. We all need to work together to integrate the three ‘Es’: the experience of the farmer, the evidence in the crop and the expertise of the advisor.” 

A comment on reward: “By being aware of risks and by working more strongly together, we will make our farming businesses more resilient. Over the longer term, this will help us weather the storms and bring real rewards – or, at the very least, help minimise regret.” 

Agronomists’ Conference 2016 

A provisional booking for the Agronomists’ Conference 2016 has been made for Thursday 8 December 2016 at Peterborough Arena.



More news from: AHDB - Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board


Website: http://cereals.ahdb.org.uk/

Published: December 15, 2015

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