|
July 1, 2003
From
The International Cotton Advisory
Committee
World cotton production is expected to increase by 7% to 20.5
million tons in 2003/04, the third largest crop on record. World
consumption is expected to rise to 21.1 millions tons, up by
0.5%, and China (Mainland) is expected to continue fueling the
world cotton industry, with net imports projected to climb to
550,000 tons. World ending stocks are projected to shrink to 8.3
million tons in 2003/04, the lowest in nine seasons. However,
the stocks-to-use ratio outside China (Mainland) is projected at
48% in 2003/04, down from 54% in 2001/02 but still above the
average of 40% during the nineties. These market fundamentals
suggest that the season-average Cotlook A Index will be 63 cents
per pound in 2003/04, seven cents more than the average expected
for 2002/03.
Most of the increase in world cotton consumption at the end-use
level is occurring in industrial countries, while increases in
cotton mill use are taking place in developing countries. As a
consequence, net imports of cotton textiles by industrial
countries are increasing. The elimination of all
quotas on textile and apparel trade, 18 months from now, is
likely to accelerate the decline of the spinning industries in
industrial countries. U.S. mill use is headed lower because
imports of cotton products are rising more than three times
faster than the rate of increase in retail sales. The
strengthening of the euro against all currencies will have a
devastating impact on cotton mill use in the EU. In contrast,
mill consumption is expected to increase by 150,000 tons in
China (Mainland) in 2003/04, to an estimated 6.35 million tons.
Significant increases are also anticipated in India, Pakistan
and Turkey.
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
| |
2001/02 |
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
2001/02 |
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
| |
Million Tons |
Million Bales |
|
Production |
21.510 |
19.112 |
20.55 |
98.80 |
87.78 |
94.4 |
|
Consumption |
20.216 |
20.970 |
21.08 |
92.85 |
96.32 |
96.8 |
|
Exports |
6.495 |
6.497 |
6.62 |
29.83 |
29.84 |
30.4 |
|
Ending Stocks |
10.558 |
8.807 |
8.27 |
48.49 |
40.45 |
38.0 |
|
Cotlook A Index |
41.80 |
56* |
63* |
41.80 |
56* |
63* |
|
* US cents per pound.
NOT A MODEL RESULT FOR 2002/03. Statistical estimates are based
on current estimates of supply and use; 95% confidence intervals
extend 12 cents per pound above and below each point estimate.
The International
Cotton Advisory Committee is an association of 42 governments of
cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the
Committee publishes information related to world
cotton production, supply, demand and prices, and provides
technical information on cotton production technology. Detailed
statistics are found bimonthly in COTTON: Review of the World
Situation, $160 per year. A monthly outlook by fax is also
available for $300 per year or on the Internet for $250 per
year. Access to the weekly estimates of world cotton supply and
use by the Secretariat is also available on the Internet for
$500 per year. |
