Australian Oilseeds Federation - Crop Report December 2004

Canola 2004/05

Canola forecast holds up despite difficult conditions.

Despite a very difficult season and very variable industry results, estimated production for NSW has been revised upwards slightly. Harvest is virtually complete and yields and quality have been erratic. Overall oil content is expected to be down across the state, by around 2-4% on average and yields are also below average.

Victoria has demonstrated a similar pattern to NSW with highly variable crop performances, but overall yields and quality are disappointing. The rain received in the last week has done little damage to crops and will assist the later areas. Harvest is complete in the Mallee, around 75% complete in the Wimmera and well progressed in the north East/north Central region. Harvest is just commencing in the Western Districts. Frost damage has been substantial in some crops and there has been some spraying for heliothis.

Yields have not been as good as anticipated in South Australia and production estimates have been revised back slightly. Harvest is virtually complete with the exception of the South East.

Estimates for Western Australia remain unchanged from last month. Harvest is progressing well now despite earlier delays due to harvest bans and rain. Harvest is complete in the Geraldton zone with oil content averaging over 44%. Harvest is continuing in southern parts of Kwinana and Esperance zones and the Albany zone.

Sunflowers 2004/05

Sunflower prospects have improved given recent good rain across all regions. The crop is now estimated at just under 70,000 tonnes. Around 55% of the crop is monounsaturated.

Over the last week the Moree region has received between 100 and 300mm of rain, resulting in localised flooding and some waterlogging. The sunflower crops have withstood the rain well, although there is some concern re disease. With early planted sunflowers just finished flowering and the later planted crops just at the start of flowering when the rain occurred, yield potential is high. Warm days and nights have returned and this should assist oil contents.

In the Gunnedah region, recent rain has also provided excellent moisture. There has been some localised flooding, but there has not been damage to sunflowers reported. The early crop is progressing well under excellent growing conditions, with crops at late budding/ early flowering stage. Yields are expected to be excellent if the favourable conditions continue.

The late plant will begin as soon as it is dry enough and will occur on a full profile of moisture. The opportunity for double cropping is now also available in some areas and this may provide some upside to the estimates.

Prospects for Central Queensland are still uncertain following the sunflower disorder experienced last year. The ASA held a series of grower meetings in CQ last week to explain the experience of last season and hopefully this will assist to alleviate grower concerns.

Soybeans 2004/05

Our first estimate for 2004/05 indicates that production is likely to be around the levels of 2003/04, although still well below potential levels given more favourable seasonal conditions. Lack of water in the central and southern NSW irrigation areas has severely reduced area planted in these regions.

It is estimated that just under 13,000 hectares will be planted in Queensland. There has been increased interest and expanded area planted in coastal regions. There is some upside potential if the recent rain leads to some replacement of cotton with soybeans. In NSW, the area planted is down on the North Coast due to good returns from beef. There is good subsoil moisture in the northern inland areas and this will boost plantings in this region. In the central and southern irrigation areas, water allocations are still well below average and area planted to soybeans is down substantially. Similar conditions apply in northern Victoria.

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