Source: Australian Oilseeds Federation / Canola Association of Australia
Oilseeds news June 2004

Crop Outlook

Soybeans 2003/04

The soybean harvest finished just short of 74,000 tonnes for the season. There were some losses on the Queensland coastal areas, however, this was offset by better than expected yields on the NSW North Coast. The Riverina region in NSW was disappointing and there are concerns over water availability for next season.

Canola 2004/05

First estimates for the 2004/05 canola crop forecast a 1.5 million tonne crop. Outlook is somewhat better than expected a month ago, but will be dependent on a good spring.

Plantings in the north west of NSW have increased significantly due to the excellent early break. It is estimated that this region will represent around 25% of State’s area this year. The Central West will see a similar area to last year. Some crops were planted dry and benefited from the break in late May although there is poor sub-soil moisture and reports of cut worm and wire worm damage. The south has again faced difficult conditions with a very late break. There has been some incidence of heavy frosts which will slow emergence and some reports of insect damage. The crops are lacking sub-soil moisture and it is expected that weed control will be a significant issue. Overall, plantings are forecast at just over 300,000 hectares. A good spring will be needed to secure yields.

Victoria had the potential for a big planting this year, however, the late break has prevented this. The break has been too late for the Mallee and there will be little canola planted in this region. In the Wimmera the crop is being planted dry or on marginal moisture. The Western Districts is looking excellent and there will be an increase in plantings in this region. The North East is also looking reasonable. Overall, the crop has little sub-soil moisture and the cold conditions will slow emergence. Weeds are also expected to be an issue and the crop will be dependent on spring rain. It estimated that the area planted will be similar to last year.

There has not been a major break in South Australia, but there have been sufficient falls to enable the crop to be planted. There were some early plantings on the Eyre Peninsula and an increase in planting in some parts. In the Upper North planting has been underway over the past couple of weeks and in the Lower/Mid North there has been some dry sowing and patchy rain falls. A small area has been planted in the Mallee. Rainfall has been variable in the South East. Most of the crop is now in, and like NSW and Victoria, there is potential for weed problems. Area planted is expected to be similar to last year.

The crop in Western Australia is mostly planted and will again be concentrated on the coastal regions, which should assist yield potential. The north had an excellent start to the season and has good sub-soil moisture. The break was too late for most of the wheat belt and the Great South has had a patchy start. Given the shift in varieties, oil yields are expected to be a bit lower this season.

Market Comment

The prospects are for an improved canola crop globally with the Canadian crop looking good and expected to be considerably larger than last year; and favourable conditions in the EU and China. Combined with the improved outlook in Australia, global production is expected to be up. Oil World has put initial estimate at 41 million tons (Canada 7.3 million tons). Despite this, values have remained firm, but volatility can be expected until the outlook for the US soybean crop is firmer.