Australian Oilseeds Federation - Crop Report November 2004

Canola 2004/05

Weather continues to takes it toll on the canola crop with production estimates revised down by around 10%.

The impact of dry conditions, frost and insect incidence have taken their toll on the NSW crop. In the western areas of the north, harvest is complete, with yields disappointing. The impact of frost damage has been higher than originally estimated. In the Central West the crops are generally windrowed or harvested, with the rain received last week being of little value. In the south, the crops range considerably i.e. from 14 days out from windrowing to ready to harvest. The later crops will benefit from the rain. Poor yields combined with low
oil contents, have provided a disappointing finish to the season.

At this stage oil contents across the State are ranging from 33-38% and while the South should provide some better figures, the State average is expected to remain well below average. Insects have been a problem with virtually the whole state being sprayed for heliothis and, in some cases, aphids have also had to be sprayed. Overall production estimates have been reduced by more than 20% to 307,000 tonnes. Some further downside can be expected.

Dry conditions and frost have also impacted the Victorian crop. The rain received last week was too late for most crops, but will assist those in the western districts and North East. The frost impact in the Wimmera has been greater than estimated and crops have not podded up as expected. As a result, production estimates have been dropped by 15% to 216,000 tonnes. However, it is not expected that there will be much more downside to this.

Estimates for South Australia have been left unchanged. The recent rain should benefit crops in the South East in terms of both yield and oil content. This is expected to offset some areas such as the Mid North where yields have been impacted by the dry conditions during spring. Cool temperatures have helped the crop. However, oil contents overall are expected to be down on last year.

Harvest is well underway in WA, in particular, in the northern Geraldton zone. Crops here are looking good and oil contents at receival points have been 42%-47%. Yields and oil content are not expected to be quite as good in the southern regions as the Geraldton zone but overall the State is expected to average in excess 42%. Production estimates have been revised down slightly to 441,000 tonnes.

Sunflowers 2004/05

The sunflower season has got off to a reasonable start with good rain through northern NSW. Falls in southern Queensland in the past week should see some increase in the area planted in this region. However, the industry will again depend on a reasonable plant in Central Queensland to see any sort of substantial production. The early plant is predominantly monounsaturate type, but overall mono’s are expected to represent a bit over half the crop, confectionary/birdseed around 5% and polyunsaturate the remainder. Note that the early estimates are areas estimated to be planted, whilst the late crop estimates are simply projections at this stage.

Conditions on the Liverpool Plains are good, with excellent rain in the last two weeks (most areas receiving up to 3 or 4 inches) and good moisture available. Crops at this stage are looing very promising and crop stage varies from 8-10 leaves, beginning of bud. No insect problems have been reported at this stage. In northern NSW, the crop is more advanced and varies from 14 leaf to full bud. Conditions have been excellent to date – full profile of moisture for planting and good in-crop rain, however, available stored moisture is not as good as on the Liverpool Plains. Vegetative growth has been abundant, providing the base for high yields if favourable climate
conditions persist. Conditions in southern Queensland are very mixed with some useful falls being received in the past week, although these have been patchy.

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