Australian Oilseeds Federation - Canola Crop Report 2004/05

Rain turns around canola outlook with production estimates up 2% but with more certainty.

The last month has seen dramatically improved conditions for New South Wales with 2 major rainfall events. The north has fared best with falls of 25 mm followed by falls of 50-100mm. Across the state, east of the Newell Highway has fared well, while to the west crops have been boosted but still lack subsoil moisture. The north now has enough subsoil moisture to ensure very good yields. In the central area, crops west of the Newell will still require follow up rain and in the south crops now have sufficient subsoil moisture to get through to pod fill stage. In the north crops are at late flowering and podding stage, while in the south crops vary from vegetative stage to early/mid flowering. There are very high numbers of heliothis and aphids present. There has been considerable spraying activity to control aphids and it is difficult to predict the impact from heliothis at this stage. NSW is also expected to see a locust outbreak which may impact crops. On the positive side, disease levels have been low, although the damp conditions in the south may see some incidence of sclerotinia. Given the dry conditions up till August, there has been a low level of nitrogen topdressing and this may have an adverse impact on yield and oil levels. However, overall prospects are considerably brighter and yields have been revised upwards reflecting the better outlook.

The outlook is not as optimistic in Victoria despite falls of around 20-40mm across the Wimmera, North East, Central and Mallee regions. Even with normal rainfall through the Spring, total moisture will be below average and this is being reflected in the crops, particularly in the Mallee and Wimmera. Crops are generally flowering and will require spring rain to secure potential. Average yield has been revised down and a good finish will be needed to
secure this.

Crops in South Australia are generally looking good with substantial rainfalls through August. While some areas missed out on the earlier fall, this was picked up in the second fall and all areas have received good falls. At this stage yields have been left unchanged but there is potential for upside in this and this is likely to be reflected in October’s forecast.

Conditions in Western Australia have been good throughout the growing season and crops in the northern part of the Kwinana zone and the Geraldton zone are looking excellent. The southern zone has been better than expected and area is higher than predicted earlier.

There have been some reports of blackleg but it is not expected to be a significant problem and some damage from downy mildew has been reported. The area has been revised upwards and yields left as for the August forecast.

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