Fargo, North Dakota
December 16, 2005
by George Flaskerud, Crops
Economist
North Dakota State
University Extension Service
The navy and pinto bean crops were much larger than a year ago
and the largest since 2002, according to a USDA report released
Dec. 9. As a result, prices for both crops are sharply below
year ago levels. As of Dec. 6, the North Dakota price was $18
per hundredweight (cwt) for navies (down 25 percent) and $14 per
cwt for pinto beans (down 50 percent).
Navy bean production totaled 3.95 million cwt versus 5.39
million in 2002. Pinto bean production totaled 13.11 million cwt
versus 13.19 million in 2002. For both crops, 2005 production
was up appreciably from the past two years, especially from last
year. The situation was similar for 2002 production relative to
2001 and 2000.
Given the similarities between 2002 and 2005 production,
especially for pinto beans, an examination of 2002 marketing
year prices may be worthwhile. The prices analyzed are monthly
averages for North Dakota. The marketing year for navy and pinto
beans begins in September.
Navy bean prices in 2002 averaged $23 per cwt during February
and then declined to $12.40 by December. The price went on to
establish a marketing year low in February 2003 of $9.52. By
September, the price had recovered to $17.
The navy bean crop was quite a bit larger in 2002 (36 percent)
than in 2005, so it is not so likely that the navy price will
deteriorate from the $18 December price and could improve by
spring, depending in large part on exports. At least the navy
bean price has a better chance of improving than the pinto bean
price.
Pinto bean prices in 2002 peaked at $30.70 per cwt during April
and then declined to $13.90 by December. The price made a
marketing year low in March 2003 of $12.30. By September, the
price had recovered to $14.90. In 2005, the price peaked in
February at a similar price of $30.30 and the December prices
were nearly identical.
For pinto beans, the two years are close enough in production
and price that further price weakness into 2006 cannot be ruled
out. Furthermore, price recovery is likely to be much more
anemic for pinto beans than for navies. Keep in mind that
exports, acres and yields ultimately will determine what happens
to prices in 2006.
Navy bean planted acres totaled 233,400 in 2005, up 26 percent
from 2004 and up 48 percent from 2003. Pinto bean planted acres
totaled 817,800 in 2005, also up 26 percent from 2004 and up 23
percent from 2003.
Very good yields were recorded for both crops in 2005. The navy
bean yield was 1,784 pounds per acre versus 1,318 in 2004 and
1,666 in 2003. The pinto bean yield was 1,719 in 2005 versus
1,362 in 2004 and 1,635 in 2003. |