Estimates of world production in 2004/05 were raised for the 10th consecutive month during February, and the crop is now estimated at 25.4 million tons, up 4.8 million tons (23%) from last season, and 4 million tons above the record set in 2001/02. In absolute terms, this is the largest year-to-year increase ever. World production is expected to outpace consumption by 2.6 million tons in 2004/05, causing world ending stocks to rise to 10.4 million tons, almost the same level as in 2001/02. Net imports by China (Mainland) are expected to be 1.85 millions tons this season, essentially unchanged from 2003/04. The Cotlook A Index will probably average 52 cents per pound in 2004/05, 16 cents less than last season.

Plantings in the Northern Hemisphere, which accounts for 90% of world production, will start with international prices much lower than last year. Lower prices will curtail plantings and stimulate world consumption next season. World production is forecast down 2.4 million tons (9%) to 23.1 million tons in 2005/06, still the second largest crop on record. World consumption is forecast to climb to a record of 23.3 million tons, up 500,000 tons (2%). World consumption is forecast to outpace production by about 250,000 tons in 2005/06. The Cotlook A Index is forecast at an average of 58 cents per pound in 2005/06, 7 cents above the average-to-date this season.

WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION

. 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 . Million Tons Million Bales Production 20.662 25.43 23.05 94.90 116.8 105.9 Consumption 21.294 22.85 23.32 97.80 104.9 107.01 Exports 7.276 7.02 7.87 33.42 32.3 36.1 Ending Stocks 7.776 10.36 10.09 35.72 47.6 46.3 Cotlook A Index 68.3 52* 58* 68.3 52* 58*

* US cents per pound. The estimate for 2004/05 IS NOT A PRICE MODEL RESULT. The statistical estimate for 2005/06 is based on current estimates of supply and use; 95% confidence intervals extend 12 cents per pound above and below the estimate.

The International Cotton Advisory Committee is an association of 41 governments of cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the Committee publishes information related to world  cotton production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical information on cotton production technology. Detailed statistics are found bimonthly in COTTON: Review of the World Situation, $160 per year. A monthly outlook by fax is also available for $300 per year or on the Internet for $250 per year. Access to the weekly estimates of world cotton supply and use by the Secretariat is also available on the Internet for $500 per year.