Australia
May 18, 2005
Australian Oilseeds
Federation - Crop Report May 2005 (excerpts)
Sunflowers 2004/05
The
sunflower crop has been further impacted by dry conditions.
Central Queensland did not receive
enough planting rain to reach anticipated mono and poly
plantings. The
Southern Downs crops have also suffered due to the continual dry
weather. Harvest is about 25% complete.
The early plant Nth NSW crop
harvest is complete with yields as expected. The late harvest is
underway in both
northern NSW and the Liverpool Plains. Yields for dryland crops
east of Moree are expected to average 1.2 t/ha,
while irrigated crop west of Moree should be around 2.2 t/ha. On
the Liverpool Plains, yields are expected to
average around 1.9 t/ha.Soybeans 2004/05
Soybeans 2004/05
The
soybean crop has been impacted by the continued dry conditions
and estimates have been revised down by
around 7% to 55,000 tonnes.
There has
been little change in Queensland with the exception of some
crops in the western Downs that will
not be harvested. In NSW, the harvest on the North Coast is 80%
complete and yields on track to average 2.5 t/ha.
For the
tablelands, yield estimates have declined overall since last
month. Harvest has only just begun on Liverpool Plains where
crops are reasonable. Harvest is less than 50% complete in the
north west region and yields have been disappointing under
irrigation where yield forecasts have fallen from 2.8-3.0 t/ha
back to 2.2 - 2.5 t/ha. Seed size is smaller than normal in most
cases. On the northwest slopes and plains, a significant
proportion of the dryland crop has been grazed, baled or made
into silage. Harvest is about 75% complete in this region.
Canola
2004/05
Western
Australia receives good planting rain, but the potential area
falls in the eastern states.
New South
Wales estimates have been reduced significantly due to the
prolonged drought, with further potential downside if rain is
not received in the next two weeks. Much of the area planted to
date has been sown dry or into very marginal moisture. Area in
the north has fallen due to last season’s results, low prices
and lack of sowing opportunities. In the central west and
south-west there is virtually no subsoil moisture, with a few
exceptions. In the south-west slopes growers would like to sow
canola to maintain rotations, but lack subsoil moisture. Area to
the west of the Newell Highway is expected to reduce
substantially if there is no rain in the next week or so.
However, to keep the season in perspective with last year, the
break in 2004 did not come until late May-early June along the
slopes and many growers were still able to achieve reasonable
yields. As with many seasons, the finishing conditions are going
to be critical to achieving satisfactory crops.
Estimates in
Victoria have been revised down and will fall greatly if rain is
not recieved in the next two weeks. Most of the canola is grown
in higher rainfall areas and thus, there is still time for
planting to occur. With no break yet in the Western districts,
dry sowing is starting to commence. Slugs could be a concern as
February rain
would have allowed hatching and a lifecycle to complete. In the
Wimmera, there has been some dry sowing of
canola, however, growers are being cautious. Estimates have been
reduced slightly, with the picture becoming
clearer in the next three weeks. The Mallee is fast running out
of time to plant and thus, area has reduced
significantly in this region. The North East and North Central
regions are experiencing similar conditions to the
Wimmera and a clearer picture will emerge in the next few weeks.
Estimates in
South Australia have been reduced slightly, but will drop
quickly if there is no rain through May. Some crop has been dry
sown.
The season
has broken perfectly across Western Australia for canola
plantings with significant rains during the first week of April,
then the proper break of season in the first week of May. There
was some planting of canola on the April rains,but mainly
confined to the Northern and Eastern cropping areas. However,
the May rains have seen additional planting in the Esperance
area and parts of the Great Southern region. The current area
planted would be approximately 85% complete. With the good
rains, yield expectations have also increased. The estimated
plantings upper range of 450,000 hectares represents an increase
of 25,000 hectares in area from last year, and early production
estimates predict the crop at 500,000-550,000 tonnes. |