Australian Oilseeds Federation - Crop Report October 2005 (excerpts)

Canola 2005/06

Mild spring conditions keep canola estimates on track.

The temperate conditions have assisted the yield potential in New South Wales. There have been some reports of incidence of insects, but this is not expected to have a significant impact and there is little impact of disease at this stage although sclerotinia may be an issue in some parts of the south. Crops in the south are late, with only those in the western areas finished flowering and are generally shorter and lack bulk. A long mild finish is sought to boost pod fill and oil content. There is adequate moisture in the south to get crops through to harvest. Thus, area has been maintained and yields increased slightly.

The Victorian crop is in better shape than this time last year. The majority of the crop is in the western districts and yields are expected to be maintained. The Mallee crops are on fallow and yields are expected to be relatively low at around 0.5 t/ha. The Wimmera is experiencing difficult conditions and yields may be lower than expected. Overall, area has been maintained but yields revised downwards by around 5%.

Crops in South Australia are still flowering and weather conditions have been cool and mild which will assist yield
potential. There have a few reports of insects but like NSW, this is not expected to have a significant impact. All areas have received good rain over the past few weeks and thus, yields have been increased to 1.3 tonnes per hectare. Area planted has also been revised up slightly.

Crop progress in Western Australia is still good, with harvest just beginning in the North. There have been some
reports of frost damage. In the south, it continues to be very wet and some area has been lost to waterlogging. Overall, area and yields have been revised down slightly but still expect close to 600,000 tonnes.

Market Comment

Large oilseed crops continue to be a major factor influencing the market. The USDA has reduced the area of soybeans planted in USA, but increased yield expectation despite the dry conditions. There was a slight market lift after this announcement.

As reported last month, Canada is on track for a canola crop of at least 8.5 million tonnes, with some estimates indicating that it could exceed the previous record of 8.7 million tonnes due to better than expected yields. There was some rain through harvest (which now almost finished) that have caused some delays. Focus is currently on China and their entry into the canola market.

Summer Crops 2005/06

The sunflower industry has got off to a better start this season, with an early plant of around 60,000 hectares in
northern NSW. This is 90-95% high oleic type. The size of the late plant in Central Queensland will depend on rain and grower confidence. This is likely to be predominantly poly type. Southern Queensland is waiting for rain to enable planting to get underway.

Soybean planting will commence in December/January. It is expected that there will be an increased area in the Riverina with improved water allocations. The NSW north coast is expected to maintain a similar area to last year, while the inland NSW/Queensland areas are still waiting on rain. There is expected to be an increased planting in sugar regions.

The cotton crop is forecast to be lower than last year at 2-1-2.5 million bales. This is expected to produce 620,000 tonnes of seed, down from 820,000 in 2004/05.