Above average rainfall across the Australian grains belt in June has significantly improved prospects for this year’s winter grains production, according to the September issue of ABARE’s Australian Crop Report.
 
The report was released today by Dr Brian Fisher, Executive Director of ABARE.

‘The widespread June rainfall across eastern Australia and South Australia was the season break that growers in these states needed, and provided a welcome opportunity for late planting to occur,’ Dr Fisher explained.

While the June rainfall improved the outlook for this season, total winter grains production is still forecast to be 2 per cent lower than production in 2004-05.

Winter grains production in New South Wales is forecast to fall by 30 per cent, due to a reduced area sown to winter grains and below average yields, reflecting the late start to planting.

In Western Australia, on the other hand, the crop outlook remains positive and production is forecast to increase by 16 per cent. In Victoria and Queensland production is forecast to increase by 5 per cent and in South Australia production is forecast to remain unchanged from last year.

‘Nevertheless, with many crops being sown outside the optimal planting time there is a risk of yield penalties if sufficient spring rainfall is not received or if hot weather prematurely finished the crop growing season,’ Dr Fisher noted.

Of the major winter grains, wheat production in 2005-06 is forecast to reach 19.7 million tonnes compared with 20.4 million tonnes in 2004-05. Barley production is forecast to be 6.6 million tonnes in 2005-06, up slightly from 2004-05. Canola production in 2005-06 is forecast to be 1.1 million tonnes, 27 per cent lower than in 2004-05 as it has been particularly affected by the late break to the season.

‘Total summer crop area is forecast to increase by 7 per cent to 1.3 million hectares in 2005-06, despite low water availabilities contributing to an 11 per cent decline in the area sown to cotton. The area planted to sorghum is forecast to be 10 per cent larger than in the previous season,’ Dr Fisher concluded.

For copies of Australian Crop Report, visit the ABARE web site www.abareconomics.com or phone 02 6272 2010