Australian Oilseeds Federation - Crop Report September 2005 (excerpts)

Canola 2005/06
Spring conditions will determine the size and quality of the Eastern Australian canola crop

While there has been some general rain across New South Wales, there will need to be improved conditions to see forecast yields achieved. The Central West is amongst the worst of the regions and moisture is running out. Crops are flowering, but overall are very late, particularly in the south where they can be anywhere up to a month late. There have been reports of heliothis in the north and also some potential concern about aphids if it remains dry. In the south, weeds have been an issue and fertiliser application has been less than optimal. Thus, due to the late flowering and warm conditions, yields have been reduced from an average of 1.35 tonnes per hectare to
1.3.

Yields in Victoria have also been revised down slightly due to concerns over the potential outlook for a favourable spring. Further rain and mild conditions are required to see forecast yields achieved. Crops are generally looking reasonable, but are existing from rain to rain. Conditions over the next month will be crucial for crop prospects.

A similar story applies in South Australia. There was good general rain two weeks ago and the Eyre Peninsula, Mid North and Mallee received further rain last weekend. With a good spring, there may be some upside, but without this there will be pressure in achieving the forecast yields. Crops are flowering and are around two weeks late.

Conditions in Western Australia continue to be good. Following a dry July, good rain has been received and this has helped ensure WA is on track for one of its best average yields. It remains wet in the south. There has been some reports of Diamond Back Moth in the north. Globally, Canada is on track for close to a record crop. The crop is forecast to be around 8.4 million tonnes, which is very close to their record of 8.8 million tonnes. This outlook has seen Winnipeg values fall over recent days. While the Canadian harvest is a little late due to wet weather, this has not caused any major problems. Lower values for Canadian canola has stimulated demand from China, while demand from the bio-diesel industry is supporting canola/rapeseed values in Europe.