Australian Oilseeds Federation - Crop Report April 2006 (excerpts)

Sunflowers 2005/06

Estimates for the 2005/06 sunflower crop remain unchanged. The early crop harvest is complete with yields and oil contents disappointing given the good start to the season.

Soybeans 2005/06

Soybean estimates remain relatively unchanged from the previous months although conditions vary between regions. Production has been revised down in Queensland, but this has been offset by increases in NSW and Victoria.

Hot dry conditions in parts of Queensland have seen some crops baled in the Burnett and Downs. However, northern and coastal Queensland crops are generally very good.

Crops on the north coast of NSW look good, with the only concern now wet weather close to harvest. While there has been rain over the past three weeks, this is not expected to have impacted the crop at this stage. However with harvest set to commence around Easter, crops are looking for some finer weather. In the dryland areas of northern NSW, some crops have been baled and yields may be down in irrigated areas due to hot conditions.

Crops in southern NSW and Victoria are looking very good. Crops that have been harvested have shown some good yields and quality.

Canola 2006/07

Our initial forecast for the 2006/07 season reflects planting intentions given the current climate and price outlooks. As has been the case over the past few years, the timing of the break will be critical in terms of whether or not these planting intentions are realised. At this early stage, it is estimated that the crop will be close to, or slightly better, than last year. An early break would firm estimates and possibly provide some upside.

In northern NSW, there are some areas with good sub-soil moisture, although it is dry in western areas. The canola area will increase significantly on the very low plantings last year, but still fall short of areas planted prior to this. Pulses are expected to win a share of the area planted to rotation crops. There is also expected to be a recovery in the Central West region, however, the season break will need to occur by late April to maximise potential. In the south, there is continuing dry conditions and little sub-soil moisture. Growers are showing a reluctance to commit to canola given weather and price conditions. However, growers did well with canola last year due to the good finish and with an early break and more attractive prices, there is potential for an increased canola. Growers are looking to switch back to a rotation crop after several years of wheat on wheat. Overall,
potential area is estimated to be around 215,000 hectares.

In Victoria, area planted to canola is expected to be similar to last year, although areas may be down slightly in the western districts due to the poor performance last year and up in the Wimmera and Mallee with an early break. Like NSW, timing of the break and prices will be critical influencers on planting intentions. Overall, potential area is estimated at 230,000 hectares.

In South Australia, area is expected to remain around levels of last year, with some minor upside or downside depending on the break and prices. Overall, potential area is estimated at 150,000 hectares.

Western Australia looks to be off to a good start again. There is good subsoil moisture in the core canola growing areas and with good rain in April, plantings are likely to be strong. Canola performed well last year in terms of yield and quality and grower returns were positive. With longer term weather forecasts predicting a 50% chance of above average rainfall for April to June period, there could be upside on current estimates. Overall, potential area is estimated at 400,000 hectares.