Billings, Montana
September 5, 2006
Introduction
of genetically modified wheat will not reverse the declining
market share of U.S. wheat exports, nor will it reverse the
downward trend of wheat acres planted, according to a grain
market analysts' report released today.
In fact,
introduction would still risk the loss of one-fourth to one-half
of U.S. hard red spring and durum wheat export markets and up to
a one-third drop in price, as earlier reports have found.
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In his
latest review, Dr. Wisner found no evidence that
consumers in major foreign markets, especially the
European Union, are significantly changing their views
about Round-Up Ready® wheat, or any other genetically
modified wheat varieties, from the views they held two
years ago. Surveys over the last two years show
widespread potential foreign market resistance to
genetically modified crops in Europe and many other
foreign markets important to U.S. spring wheat.
In addition, the report does not find any technological
developments that would significantly lower the costs of
segregating GM and non-GM wheat supplies in the
marketing channels. Dr. Wisner’s report also addresses
factors influencing acres planted to wheat, corn and
soybeans. |
The report
released today is the latest update of an October 2003 report,
Market Risks of Genetically Modified Wheat, by
Iowa State
University Economics Professor, Dr. Robert Wisner. The report
was released by the Western
Organization of Resource Councils (WORC) and the
Dakota Resource Council.
"This week
Japan suspended imports of U.S. Rice, and the European Union
imposed mandatory testing of all rice entering the E.U. after
Bayer Corporation announced that traces of GMO Liberty Link rice
were detected in commercial supplies. This demonstrates the
resolve of Japan and the E.U. to keep food grains like rice and
wheat GM free. This is a warning to U.S. wheat producers - this
easily could have been wheat," states Todd Leake, farmer from
Emerado, North Dakota, and member of Dakota Resource Council.
The study
responds to recent claims made by some U.S. wheat growers that
wheat acres are being shifted to genetically modified corn and
soybeans, because they are cheaper to plant than wheat and thus,
more appealing to farmers. These growers say that
commercializing a biotech variety of wheat would increase wheat
acres lost to corn and soybean production.
Wisner's report
refutes this argument, finding that crop acreage is declining
because of changing U.S. agricultural policy and increased
production of crops suitable for ethanol and biodiesel
production (corn and soybeans).
In May 2004,
the Monsanto Co. shelved plans to commercialize the first
biotech wheat, genetically modified to resist applications of
its broad-spectrum herbicide, Roundup. A statement released by
the company said the basis for its decision was the lack of
farmer and consumer acceptance. The only variety of genetically
modified wheat currently being developed for possible commercial
release is being modified to increase resistance to fusarium
head blight.
Dr. Wisner's
report says that consumer rejection of this genetically modified
wheat is likely to be just as strong as to Monsanto's Roundup
Ready wheat.
"We have not
seen evidence, either from WTO policies or other developments,
that consumers in major foreign markets are significantly
changing their views toward GM Round-UpR Ready wheat from those
of two years ago...It appears to apply to either
herbicide-resistant or fusarium-resistant GM wheat," states Dr.
Wisner's update.
"Fusarium head
blight is yesterday's problem - it started back in '93 and '94.
In 2000, North Dakota State University's Alsen wheat variety -
with excellent fusarium resistance, was released and quickly
became the most widely planted wheat variety in North Dakota.
Since then several more varieties with excellent fusarium head
blight resistance have been released, and proponents of GMO
fusarium resistant wheat publicly ignore this fact. Fusarium
head blight is not an important enough issue anymore to warrant
the market risks of a GMO wheat introduction," says Leake.
Market Risks
of Genetically Modified Wheat and its updates were prepared for
WORC by Dr. Robert Wisner, Professor of Economics at Iowa State
University. WORC is a regional network representing farmers and
ranchers in Montana, North and South Dakota, Wyoming, Idaho,
Colorado and Oregon.
Original 2003 report:
http://www.worc.org/pdfs/wisnerfinal.pdf
September 2006 update:
http://www.worc.org/pdfs/Market%20Risks%20Update%20Final%208-06.pdf
Source:
Western Organization of Resource
Councils (WORC)
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http://www.worc.org/issues/marketrisk-reports.html |
