Washington, DC
November 2, 2007
Source:
International Cotton Advisory
Committee
World cotton production is
expected to decline by 2% in 2007/08 to 26.1 million tons, due
to lower cotton area. World cotton mill use is forecast up by 3%
to 27.5 million tons. As a result world ending stocks are
expected to decline by 11% to 11.4 million tons.
World cotton imports are forecast up by 10% to 9.1 million tons
in 2007/08 due to an expected rebound in Chinese imports to 3.5
million tons. Exports from the United States, India, and Brazil
are expected to increase significantly. However, exports from
Uzbekistan, the African Franc Zone and Australia are expected to
decline, mainly because of an expected drop in production.
The Secretariat, using the ICAC Price Model 2007, forecasts a
season-average Cotlook A Index of 69 cents per pound in 2007/08,
10 cents higher than in 2006/07. This projected price increase
is the result of an expected significant decrease in the
stocks-to-mill use ratio in the World-less-China
(Mainland) in 2007/08.
Preliminary projections for 2008/09 suggest an increase in world
production to 27.1 million tons and in world mill use to 27.8
million tons.
Consequently, world ending stocks are expected to decline
further in 2008/09, to 10.6 million tons.
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
|
. |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
|
. |
Million Tons |
Million Bales |
|
Production |
26.75 |
26.1 |
27.1 |
122.9 |
120 |
124 |
|
Consumption |
26.62 |
27.5 |
27.8 |
122.3 |
126 |
128 |
|
Exports |
8.17 |
9.1 |
8.7 |
37.5 |
42 |
40 |
|
Ending Stocks |
12.76 |
11.4 |
10.6 |
58.6 |
52 |
49 |
|
Stock adjustment |
-0.04 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.2 |
0 |
0 |
|
Cotlook A Index* |
59.15 |
69** |
. |
59.15 |
69** |
. |
|
* Season-average Cotlook A Index
(U.S. cents per pound).
** The price projection for 2007/08 is based on the ending
stocks/mill use ratio in the world-less-China (Mainland) in
2005/06, 2006/07 (estimates) and
2007/08 (projection), and on the ending stocks/mill use ratio in
China
(Mainland) in 2005/06 and 2006/07 (estimates).
95% confidence interval based on current estimates of supply,
use and stocks:
62 to 77 cents per pound.
PDF version:
http://www.icac.org/cotton_info/publications/press/2007/pr_november_07.pdf
The International Cotton
Advisory Committee is an association of 41 governments of
cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the
Committee publishes information related to world cotton
production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical
information on cotton production technology |
|
